NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6DAL

HOU

21-11

104110

DAL

13-23

NBASat, Jan 3FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-1VegasHOU -7.5

HOU · top performer

Kevin Durant

F · #7

25.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Max Christie

G · #00

23.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:38

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	38	34	14-26	2-7	4-5	+15	5	7
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	37	7	2-13	1-7	2-2	-11	9	3
T. EasonF · #17	34	19	7-17	3-6	2-2	+10	10	2
A. SengunC · #28	1	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
A. ThompsonG · #1	39	20	8-18	0-3	4-4	+1	12	4
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	16	3	1-3	1-3	—	-1	5	0
J. TateF · #8	6	3	1-2	1-2	—	-10	1	0
C. CapelaC · #30	27	8	4-8	—	0-2	-1	8	2
A. HolidayG · #0	14	0	0-6	0-5	—	-4	0	1
J. OkogieG · #20	6	2	1-3	0-2	—	-5	0	0
R. SheppardG · #15	22	8	3-10	2-6	—	-24	0	5
Team		104	41-106	10-41	12-15		51	24
DNP: J. Green, J. Davison

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. DavisF · #3	39	26	9-15	0-2	8-9	-4	12	3
D. GaffordF · #21	19	9	4-5	—	1-2	-3	8	1
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	12	0	0-1	0-1	—	-6	1	0
C. FlaggF · #32	35	10	3-12	0-2	4-4	+4	7	6
M. ChristieG · #00	35	24	10-13	4-6	—	+6	7	2
Bench
C. MartinF · #16	7	2	1-2	—	—	-1	0	0
N. MarshallF · #13	33	10	5-11	0-3	0-1	+4	2	5
K. ThompsonG · #31	22	9	3-8	2-4	1-1	+11	3	1
B. WilliamsG · #10	24	15	7-10	1-1	0-1	+9	7	3
R. NembhardG · #9	13	5	2-3	1-2	—	+10	0	3
Team		110	44-80	8-21	14-18		47	24
DNP: D. Powell, D. Russell, J. Hardy

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

41-106

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-80

FG %

10-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-21

12-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DAL leads series 2-1

Nov 4

DAL102@

HOU110

Dec 7

HOU109@

DAL122

Jan 4

HOU104@

DAL110today

Feb 1

DAL107@

HOU111

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-32576%

DAL+26028%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -7.5↗SpreadBet HOU -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat HOU 110-104. M. Christie led with 24 PTS, 7 REB, 2 AST. DAL outscored the other side 32-19 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 37 REB · 16 AST

GS 66

Bench(6)

24 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST

GS 21

DALstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 35 REB · 12 AST

GS 66

Bench(5)

41 PTS · 12 REB · 12 AST

GS 28

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL2nd Quarter · 2:38 · 48-49

+9pp→ 44% WP

Anthony Davis · makes free throw 1 of 2

DAL2nd Quarter · 2.1 · 50-57

+8pp→ 64% WP

Amen Thompson · misses driving layup

HOU3rd Quarter · 6:26 · 65-65

+8pp→ 57% WP

Jabari Smith Jr. · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	31	19	25	29	104
DAL	25	32	30	23	110

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · DAL won 2

Durant 14

Davis 12

Eason 7

Marshall 8

Durant 6

Davis 8

Durant 12

Christie 8

HOU

DAL

Shooting comparison

HOU

DAL

39%

41-106

55%

44-80

24%

10-41

3PT

38%

8-21

80%

12-15

78%

14-18

Play-by-play · 465 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 104·DAL 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 104·DAL 110
Q4·3.8
Tari Eason makes 30-foot three pointer (Aaron Holiday assists)
·
HOU 104·DAL 110
Q4·5.8
shot clock turnover
HOU 101·DAL 110
Q4·28.8
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
HOU 101·DAL 110
Q4·31.4
Jabari Smith Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper
HOU 101·DAL 110
Q4·32.7
Rockets Full timeout
HOU 101·DAL 110
Q4·32.7
Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 101·DAL 110
Q4·32.7
Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 101·DAL 109
Q4·32.7
Jabari Smith Jr. personal foul
HOU 101·DAL 108
+0.6pp
Q4·32.7
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
HOU 101·DAL 108
+0.6pp
Q4·36.5
Kevin Durant misses 26-foot running jump shot
HOU 101·DAL 108
+2pp
Q4·39.9
Anthony Davis bad pass turnover (Aaron Holiday steals)
·
HOU 101·DAL 108
−3pp
Q4·42.7
Aaron Holiday personal take foul
HOU 101·DAL 108
+1pp
Q4·45.0
Kevin Durant bad pass turnover (Cooper Flagg steals)
·
HOU 101·DAL 108
+3pp
Q4·52.4
Max Christie makes 1-foot driving dunk
HOU 101·DAL 108
+4pp
Q4·1:07
Tari Eason makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 101·DAL 106
−5pp
Q4·1:11
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
·
HOU 98·DAL 106
−1pp
Q4·1:14
Jabari Smith Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper
HOU 98·DAL 106
+2pp
Q4·1:28
Brandon Williams makes driving layup (Naji Marshall assists)
·
HOU 98·DAL 106
+3pp
Q4·1:42
Kevin Durant makes driving layup
HOU 98·DAL 104
+3pp
Q4·1:51
Brandon Williams personal foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 96·DAL 104
−6pp
Q4·1:51
Tari Eason defensive rebound
HOU 96·DAL 104
Q4·1:54
Anthony Davis misses two point shot
HOU 96·DAL 104
−1pp
Q4·2:01
Aaron Holiday personal foul
HOU 96·DAL 104
+0.5pp
Q4·2:17
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 96·DAL 104
Q4·2:17
Naji Marshall enters the game for Klay Thompson
· ·
HOU 95·DAL 104
Q4·2:17
Cooper Flagg enters the game for Caleb Martin
·
HOU 95·DAL 104
Q4·2:17
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 95·DAL 104
+1pp
Q4·2:17
Kevin Durant misses free throw 1 of 2
HOU 95·DAL 104
+2pp

Betting line

HOU -7.5·O/U 228.5·HOU -325/DAL +260

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

allas Mavericks held off Houston Rockets, 110–104.

DAL +7.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 228.5 by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Anthony DavisWSH · F
CONT9.799
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DAL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Cooper FlaggDAL
23.6± 14.0high
Kyrie IrvingDAL
23.4± 13.6high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Daniel GaffordDAL
7.8± 3.6high

Assists

Ryan NembhardDAL
6.2± 5.9high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Dereck Lively IIDAL
1.6± 1.3low
Moussa CisseDAL
1.2± 1.2high
Daniel GaffordDAL
1.1± 0.7high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

DAL

53.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

47.4%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.6%

114.1

PPG

114.9

114.1

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

25.3

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR