NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9GS

UTAH

12-22

114123

19-17

NBASat, Jan 3FinalSeriesGS leads series 2-0VegasGS -12.5

UTAH · top performer

Lauri Markkanen

F · #23

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Stephen Curry

G · #30

23.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowUTAH ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 13pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LoveF · #42	24	5	2-6	1-4	—	-4	10	5
L. MarkkanenF · #23	41	35	15-27	2-8	3-4	-2	6	1
B. SensabaughF · #28	27	12	5-8	2-4	—	+1	2	2
S. MykhailiukG · #10	28	10	4-6	2-4	—	-6	3	2
K. GeorgeG · #3	36	22	7-18	4-9	4-5	-5	2	9
Bench
K. FilipowskiF · #22	19	7	3-3	—	1-2	-4	1	1
T. HendricksF · #0	12	1	—	—	1-2	-4	2	3
C. WilliamsF · #5	13	6	3-4	—	—	-1	3	0
I. CollierG · #8	22	8	4-8	0-1	0-2	-14	5	7
W. Clayton Jr.G · #13	17	8	2-6	2-5	2-2	-6	3	2
Team		114	45-86	13-35	11-17		37	32
DNP: K. Anderson, O. Tshiebwe

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Butler IIIF · #10	34	15	4-9	1-2	6-8	+9	3	7
D. GreenF · #23	12	8	3-4	1-2	1-1	-15	3	2
Q. PostC · #21	23	15	6-9	3-6	—	+14	5	2
S. CurryG · #30	34	31	8-18	6-12	9-9	+5	2	5
M. MoodyG · #4	25	8	3-8	2-6	—	+16	2	2
Bench
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	17	9	4-5	—	1-4	+10	6	0
G. SantosF · #15	8	0	0-2	0-1	—	+4	1	2
G. Payton IIG · #0	21	10	5-9	0-1	—	0	8	2
D. MeltonG · #8	25	13	5-11	3-7	—	-3	7	2
B. PodziemskiG · #2	24	6	2-7	1-4	1-2	+6	6	8
W. RichardG · #3	18	8	3-5	2-4	—	-1	2	0
Team		123	43-87	19-45	18-24		45	32
DNP: J. Kuminga, B. Hield, P. Spencer

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

Home

45-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-87

FG %

13-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

19-45

11-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS leads series 2-0

Nov 25

UTAH117@

GS134

Jan 4

UTAH114@

GS123today

Jan 29

GS140@

UTAH124

Mar 10

GS116@

UTAH119

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

248.5

High-scoring · +22.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+44019%

GS-60086%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -12.5↗SpreadBet GS -12.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

248.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat UTAH 123-114. S. Curry paced them with 31 PTS, 2 REB, 5 AST. GS outscored the other side 42-31 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 23 REB · 19 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

30 PTS · 14 REB · 13 AST

GS 33

GSstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 15 REB · 18 AST

GS 66

Bench(6)

46 PTS · 30 REB · 14 AST

GS 43

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS2nd Quarter · 2:00 · 60-51

+13pp→ 38% WP

Keyonte George · lost ball turnover (De'Anthony Melton steals)

GS2nd Quarter · 1:05 · 62-54

+9pp→ 44% WP

Jimmy Butler III · makes free throw 1 of 2

GS3rd Quarter · 5:30 · 85-87

+9pp→ 71% WP

Keyonte George · misses free throw 1 of 1

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	29	36	31	18	114
GS	25	33	42	23	123

Period scoring

UTAH won 2 · GS won 2

George 8

Green 6

Markkanen 15

II 6

Markkanen 10

Curry 20

Jr. 5

Richard 6

UTAH

Shooting comparison

UTAH

52%

45-86

49%

43-87

37%

13-35

3PT

42%

19-45

65%

11-17

75%

18-24

Play-by-play · 471 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 114·GS 123
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 114·GS 123
Q4·12.8
Brice Sensabaugh makes 3-foot running dunk
UTAH 114·GS 123
Q4·14.9
De'Anthony Melton bad pass turnover (Brice Sensabaugh steals)
·
UTAH 112·GS 123
Q4·18.7
De'Anthony Melton offensive rebound
UTAH 112·GS 123
Q4·22.3
Stephen Curry misses two point shot
UTAH 112·GS 123
Q4·35.6
Gary Payton II offensive rebound
UTAH 112·GS 123
Q4·39.0
Jimmy Butler III misses 20-foot step back jumpshot
UTAH 112·GS 123
Q4·1:02
Brice Sensabaugh makes running layup (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
·
UTAH 112·GS 123
Q4·1:05
Walter Clayton Jr. defensive rebound
UTAH 110·GS 123
Q4·1:07
De'Anthony Melton misses 27-foot three point jumper
UTAH 110·GS 123
Q4·1:27
Brice Sensabaugh bad pass turnover (Jimmy Butler III steals)
·
UTAH 110·GS 123
Q4·1:43
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 2-foot dunk
UTAH 110·GS 123
Q4·1:43
Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
UTAH 110·GS 121
Q4·1:45
Gary Payton II misses 6-foot two point shot
UTAH 110·GS 121
Q4·2:08
De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
UTAH 110·GS 121
Q4·2:11
Brice Sensabaugh misses 26-foot three point jumper
UTAH 110·GS 121
Q4·2:12
Svi Mykhailiuk offensive rebound
UTAH 110·GS 121
Q4·2:16
Lauri Markkanen misses 28-foot three point jumper
UTAH 110·GS 121
Q4·2:27
Gary Payton II out of bounds bad pass turnover
UTAH 110·GS 121
Q4·2:41
Gary Payton II defensive rebound
UTAH 110·GS 121
Q4·2:45
Keyonte George misses 25-foot running jump shot
UTAH 110·GS 121
Q4·2:49
Walter Clayton Jr. defensive rebound
UTAH 110·GS 121
Q4·2:52
Stephen Curry misses 21-foot step back jumpshot
UTAH 110·GS 121
Q4·3:06
Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound
UTAH 110·GS 121
Q4·3:10
Walter Clayton Jr. misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
UTAH 110·GS 121
+0.8pp
Q4·3:34
Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 110·GS 121
−0.6pp
Q4·3:34
Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 110·GS 120
Q4·3:34
Lauri Markkanen shooting foul
UTAH 110·GS 119
+2pp
Q4·3:50
Walter Clayton Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 110·GS 119
+1pp

Betting line

GS -12.5·O/U 248.5·UTAH +440/GS -600

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

olden State Warriors held off Utah Jazz, 123–114.

UTAH +12.5 cashed (GS won by 9). Total stayed UNDER 248.5 by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Stephen CurryGS · G
USG%31.597
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · G
TOUCHES78.797
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH · F
USG%27.492
Jimmy Butler IIIGS · F
DRIVES11.391

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · UTAH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

GS vs UTAH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH
8.1± 2.6high
John KoncharUTAH
6.6± 3.4high

Assists

Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium

Blocks

Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high
Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Ace BaileyUTAH
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

53.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.2%

117.6

PPG

◀

114.9

114.5

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

28.8

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR