NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13CHA

CHA

12-23

11299

CHI

17-18

NBASat, Jan 3FinalSeriesCHA leads series 2-1VegasCHI -2.5

CHA · top performer

Miles Bridges

F · #0

22.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Nikola Vucevic

C · #9

27.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 30pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:59

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	35	26	11-18	3-7	1-1	+19	14	1
B. MillerF · #24	36	22	8-19	4-10	2-2	+3	6	4
P. HallC · #16	22	10	4-7	1-1	1-2	0	6	0
L. BallG · #1	26	17	7-15	3-8	—	+12	6	7
K. KnueppelG · #7	33	18	4-14	2-6	8-9	+18	5	1
Bench
C. SextonG · #8	20	13	3-7	0-1	7-9	-1	2	3
J. GreenG · #10	25	3	1-3	1-3	—	+6	3	3
S. JamesG · #4	30	3	1-5	1-4	—	+7	7	3
L. McNeeleyG · #33	13	0	0-3	0-1	—	+1	3	1
Team		112	39-91	15-41	19-23		52	23
DNP: T. Salaun, P. Connaughton, T. Mann, A. Reeves

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SmithF · #25	15	9	4-5	1-2	—	+6	5	1
I. OkoroF · #35	27	2	1-5	0-4	—	-4	2	1
M. BuzelisF · #14	34	17	6-16	2-8	3-6	-11	8	3
N. VucevicC · #9	34	28	11-15	3-4	3-4	-9	7	8
T. JonesG · #30	28	10	4-10	0-1	2-2	-8	2	8
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #44	15	0	0-7	0-5	—	-14	3	0
D. TerryF · #7	13	5	2-3	1-2	—	0	0	0
J. PhillipsF · #15	15	3	1-3	1-3	—	-15	1	0
K. HuerterG · #13	31	9	3-11	1-7	2-2	0	11	7
A. DosunmuG · #11	28	16	7-12	2-5	—	-10	4	4
Team		99	39-87	11-41	10-14		43	32
DNP: J. Carter, Olbrich

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

39-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-87

FG %

15-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-41

19-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-14

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA leads series 2-1

Nov 29

CHI116@

CHA123

Dec 13

CHI129@

CHA126

Jan 4

CHA112@

CHI99today

Feb 25

CHA131@

CHI99

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHI -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

241.5

High-scoring · +15.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA+11447%

CHI-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHI -2.5↗SpreadBet CHI -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

241.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat CHI 112-99. M. Bridges paced them with 26 PTS, 14 REB, 1 AST. CHA outscored the other side 32-17 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 37 REB · 13 AST

GS 75

Bench(4)

19 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST

GS 18

CHIstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 24 REB · 21 AST

GS 57

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 19 REB · 11 AST

GS 28

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA3rd Quarter · 5:03 · 70-65

+15pp→ 75% WP

Miles Bridges · makes 26-foot running jump shot (Sion James assists)

CHI3rd Quarter · 6:28 · 66-65

+29pp→ 42% WP

Kon Knueppel · makes free throw 1 of 2

CHA3rd Quarter · 3:59 · 75-65

+30pp→ 84% WP

Kon Knueppel · bad pass turnover (Julian Phillips steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	27	23	32	30	112
CHI	39	19	17	24	99

Period scoring

CHA won 3 · CHI won 1

Hall 7

Vucevic 9

Knueppel 6

Dosunmu 5

Miller 11

Vucevic 8

Ball 7

Jones 8

CHA

CHI

Shooting comparison

CHA

CHI

43%

39-91

45%

39-87

37%

15-41

3PT

27%

11-41

83%

19-23

71%

10-14

Play-by-play · 463 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 112·CHI 99
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 112·CHI 99
Q4·7.6
Tre Jones makes driving layup
CHA 112·CHI 99
Q4·13.9
LaMelo Ball makes running dunk
CHA 112·CHI 97
Q4·16.2
Matas Buzelis lost ball turnover (Miles Bridges steals)
· ·
CHA 110·CHI 97
Q4·27.1
LaMelo Ball makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)
·
CHA 110·CHI 97
Q4·45.8
Miles Bridges defensive rebound
CHA 107·CHI 97
Q4·48.7
Matas Buzelis misses 22-foot running jump shot
CHA 107·CHI 97
Q4·52.5
Kevin Huerter defensive rebound
CHA 107·CHI 97
Q4·55.1
Kevin Huerter blocks Kon Knueppel 's 5-foot driving floating jump shot
·
CHA 107·CHI 97
Q4·1:07
Tre Jones makes running layup
CHA 107·CHI 97
Q4·1:10
Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound
CHA 107·CHI 95
Q4·1:15
Brandon Miller misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
CHA 107·CHI 95
Q4·1:33
Miles Bridges defensive rebound
CHA 107·CHI 95
Q4·1:37
Matas Buzelis misses driving layup
CHA 107·CHI 95
Q4·1:45
Brandon Miller makes two point shot
CHA 107·CHI 95
Q4·1:45
Brandon Miller offensive rebound
CHA 105·CHI 95
Q4·1:47
Miles Bridges misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHA 105·CHI 95
Q4·2:07
Nikola Vucevic makes 1-foot layup (Kevin Huerter assists)
·
CHA 105·CHI 95
Q4·2:19
Miles Bridges vs. Matas Buzelis (Tre Jones gains possession)
· ·
CHA 105·CHI 93
Q4·2:19
Bulls defensive team rebound
CHA 105·CHI 93
Q4·2:19
(02:19) [Bulls] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Bulls] retain their timeout
CHA 105·CHI 93
Q4·2:19
Bulls Coach's Challenge
CHA 105·CHI 93
Q4·2:20
Kon Knueppel misses 22-foot three point jumper
CHA 105·CHI 93
Q4·2:30
Sion James offensive rebound
CHA 105·CHI 93
Q4·2:33
Brandon Miller misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHA 105·CHI 93
Q4·2:54
Kevin Huerter makes 22-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)
·
CHA 105·CHI 93
Q4·3:03
Isaac Okoro defensive rebound
CHA 105·CHI 90
Q4·3:08
Sion James misses 23-foot three point jumper
CHA 105·CHI 90
Q4·3:17
LaMelo Ball enters the game for Collin Sexton
·
CHA 105·CHI 90

Betting line

CHI -2.5·O/U 241.5·CHA +114/CHI -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Chicago Bulls and beat them, 112–99.

CHA +2.5 cashed (CHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 241.5 by 30.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Tre JonesCHI · G
DRIVES12.995
Brandon MillerCHA · F
USG%27.893
Josh GreenMIN · G
TS%64.491

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

CHI

55.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

54.7%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.9%

115.8

PPG

114.9

116.3

26.2

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.5

14.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR