Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at MIL?

The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 18, 2026

FINAL+2MIL

MIA

52-47

MIL

61-37

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

40,144 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIL no-vig %

54.9%

open 54.2% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
56.6%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.6%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.1%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.92

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-131

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at MIL?: The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+21.6pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

MIA

no live price

MIL

★ best

+170DraftKings

edge +21.6pp · implied 35.2%

Book	MIA	MIL	Best edge
DraftKings	-213	+170★	+21.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.7high
Logan HendersonMIL
6.0± 2.8low
Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium

Hits

Brice TurangMIL
1.3± 1.0high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.2± 0.6high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.2± 2.3high
Brice TurangMIL
2.0± 1.8high
Jake BauersMIL
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Joe MackMIA
0.7± 0.9high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Brice TurangMIL
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium
Robert GasserMIL
2.5± 3.1low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.4± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

MIL

.732

OPS

.719

.736

.325

OBP

.318

▶

.337

4.39

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.00

4.00

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.48

1.24

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.16

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIA 6 · MIL 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	6
MIL	0	1	1	0	0	4	2	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. LopezSS	.335	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
H. HernandezLF	.232	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
K. Stowers1B	.232	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
X. Edwards2B	.299	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Sanoja3B	.272	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. HicksC	.289	3	2	1	0	0	0	0
L. Jimenez3B	.216	2	2	1	1	0	1	0
E. RuizRF	.245	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. MackC	.239	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
G. ConineRF	.277	2	1	1	3	1	0	1
Team		33	6	7	6	1	2	13

Player

.335

.232

.232

.299

.272

.289

.216

.245

.239

.277

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MeyerSP	3.0	3	2	2	3	5	74
C. GibsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	20
T. ZuberRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	22
C. FaucherRP	0.2	3	4	4	2	1	31
R. GustoSP	2.1	3	2	1	0	2	38
Team	8.0	10	8	7	7	10	185

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

2.1

Team

8.0

185

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. YelichDH	.244	3	1	1	2	0	2	1
J. ChourioLF	.279	3	2	1	2	0	2	1
J. Bauers1B	.261	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. ContrerasC	.279	5	0	1	1	0	0	0
G. MitchellCF	.283	5	1	3	2	0	0	2
L. LaraRF	.286	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
C. PrattSS	.244	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
B. ShewmakeSS	.400	3	2	2	1	0	0	0
J. OrtizSS	.228	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
Team		35	8	10	8	0	7	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. DrohanSP	6.0	5	3	3	1	9	90
A. UribeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	17
C. YohoRP	1.0	1	3	3	1	0	18
T. MegillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	7	6	6	2	13	138

Team

MIA

MIL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIL vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

MIL vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.