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Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels

PHI
PHI

PHI

75-60

PregameSun, 4:07 PM EDTMLB.TV
LAA
LAA

LAA

52-83

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

98 total idx

Angel Stadium run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

8-2

PHI +1.6 vs LAA +0.9 margin

PHI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
⤓

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

›

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Zack Wheeler

Zack Wheeler

SP · #45

10-5

W-L

3.40

ERA

1.09

WHIP

148

K

124.1

IP

Last 3 starts

@SEAL(10-5)4.0 IP8 ER4 K
vsMIA-5.0 IP2 ER7 K
@STLL(10-4)5.0 IP4 ER5 K

Home starter

Yusei Kikuchi

Yusei Kikuchi

SP · #16

0-4

W-L

6.25

ERA

1.58

WHIP

37

K

36.0

IP

Last 3 starts

@TEXL(0-4)5.0 IP5 ER4 K
@CHW-2.0 IP0 ER1 K
@KCL(0-3)5.0 IP5 ER5 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob77% / 23%
LeanAway · 27pp
Confidence★ Lock

Head to head

SeriesPHI leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series

Scouting report · pre-game

LAA vs PHI.

LAA has dropped 5 straight; PHI is 8-2 over its last 10.

23.2%

model · LAA win prob

Recent form

  • LAA3–7+0.9
  • PHI8–2+1.6

Situational

  • LAA2d rest
  • PHI2d rest
  • +0.0d differential

Rest is even. LAA has 0 straight road games; PHI has 4.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.

  • ▼Weather + park-0.2pp

Players to watch

  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    7.7strikeouts · ±3.1

    Jesus Luzardo · 7.7 K · last-10 7.9 vs season 7.3.

  • Zack WheelerPHI
    7.1strikeouts · ±3.3

    Zack Wheeler · 7.1 K · last-10 7.4 vs season 6.7.

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7strikeouts · ±2.0

    Reid Detmers · 6.7 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 6.6.

Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1

LAA is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

  • 2026-08-28PHI @ LAA5–3

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

20.4%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    34.5%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    31.0%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    33.0%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAA vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 102 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    7.7± 3.1high
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    7.1± 3.3high
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 2.0high

Hits

  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Alec BohmPHI
    1.3± 1.6high
  • Luis ArraezPHI
    1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.4± 3.1high
  • Alec BohmPHI
    2.1± 2.7high
  • Bryce HarperPHI
    2.1± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Alec BohmPHI
    1.0± 1.3high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    0.9± 2.1high
  • Bryan De La CruzPHI
    0.8± 1.3medium

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.3± 2.3medium
  • Yusei KikuchiLAA
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    2.9± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

PHI

league avg

LAA

LAA

.716

OPS

◀

.718

.682

.313

OBP

◀

.318

.309

4.54

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.08

4.10

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.28

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.35

10.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.1

The One model★ Lock
Sun, Aug 30
PHI

PHI★

Phillies

93-74

vs76.9%PHI

LAA

Angels

60-98

LAA
PHI 76.9%win prob23.1% LAA
PHI 1547 · LAA 1412Box score→

Team pages

Philadelphia PhilliesatLos Angeles Angels

Elsewhere in the MLB

  • Marlins@Nationals8/30 - 12:15 PM EDT
  • Red Sox@Yankees8/30 - 1:35 PM EDT
  • Rockies@Braves8/30 - 1:35 PM EDT
  • Mariners@Blue Jays8/30 - 1:37 PM EDT
  • Royals@Guardians8/30 - 1:40 PM EDT
  • Dodgers@Tigers8/30 - 1:40 PM EDT
  • Padres@Rays8/30 - 1:40 PM EDT
  • White Sox@Twins8/30 - 2:10 PM EDT
  • Rangers@Brewers8/30 - 2:10 PM EDT
  • Pirates@Cardinals8/30 - 2:15 PM EDT
  • Astros@Mets8/30 - 3:10 PM EDT
  • Orioles@Athletics8/30 - 4:05 PM EDT
  • Reds@Cubs8/30 - 7:20 PM EDT

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 63-31
64%Last 30 · 303-168
Receipts →
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Wacha (KC): 8.0 IP · 10 K in a win over CLE — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 34 PTS · 5 REB · 12 AST in a win over CON
TRANSACTION · MLBDiamondbacks: Optioned RHP Juan Burgos to Reno (PCL) (Aug 28)
LAST NIGHT · NFLKyle McCord (GB): 226 PASS YDS · 4 PASS TD · 4 RUSH YDS in a win over ARI
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Brown (HOU): 6.2 IP · 10 K · 1 ER in a win over NYM
TRANSACTION · MLBOrioles: Reinstated 3B Blaze Alexander from the 10-day IL (Aug 28)
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Schlittler (NYY): 5.2 IP · 8 K in a win over BOS
LAST NIGHT · NFLSam Ehlinger (DEN): 233 PASS YDS · 3 PASS TD · 5 RUSH YDS in a win over MIN
TRANSACTION · MLBAthletics: Reinstated LHP José Suarez from the 15-day IL (Aug 28)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAK. Mitchell (IND): 34 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST in a win over CON
LAST NIGHT · MLBG. Springer (TOR): 4 H · 1 HR · 1 RBI in a win over SEA
TRANSACTION · NBANuggets: Waived F Julian Reese (Aug 28)
TRANSACTION · NBACavaliers: Waived F Cam Whitmore (Aug 28)
TRANSACTION · NHLAvalanche: Signed D Cale Makar to an eight-year contract (Aug 28)
TONIGHT · WNBACHI @ NY, 8/29 - 1:00 PM EDT — NY -8.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Wacha (KC): 8.0 IP · 10 K in a win over CLE — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 34 PTS · 5 REB · 12 AST in a win over CON
TRANSACTION · MLBDiamondbacks: Optioned RHP Juan Burgos to Reno (PCL) (Aug 28)
LAST NIGHT · NFLKyle McCord (GB): 226 PASS YDS · 4 PASS TD · 4 RUSH YDS in a win over ARI
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Brown (HOU): 6.2 IP · 10 K · 1 ER in a win over NYM
TRANSACTION · MLBOrioles: Reinstated 3B Blaze Alexander from the 10-day IL (Aug 28)
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Schlittler (NYY): 5.2 IP · 8 K in a win over BOS
LAST NIGHT · NFLSam Ehlinger (DEN): 233 PASS YDS · 3 PASS TD · 5 RUSH YDS in a win over MIN
TRANSACTION · MLBAthletics: Reinstated LHP José Suarez from the 15-day IL (Aug 28)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAK. Mitchell (IND): 34 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST in a win over CON
LAST NIGHT · MLBG. Springer (TOR): 4 H · 1 HR · 1 RBI in a win over SEA
TRANSACTION · NBANuggets: Waived F Julian Reese (Aug 28)
TRANSACTION · NBACavaliers: Waived F Cam Whitmore (Aug 28)
TRANSACTION · NHLAvalanche: Signed D Cale Makar to an eight-year contract (Aug 28)
TONIGHT · WNBACHI @ NY, 8/29 - 1:00 PM EDT — NY -8.5
MLB·Sun, Aug 30·8/30 - 4:07 PM EDT/SeriesPHI leads series 1-0

Preview · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies visit Los Angeles Angels Sunday at 8/30 - 4:07 PM EDT. PHI is rolling — 10-2 in their last 12.

The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels · pregame

MLB · Box score

8/30 - 4:07 PM EDT

No player stats available yet.

No player stats available yet.

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

613

Runs

551

1100

Hits

1057

68

Errors

79

1823

TB

1680

162

HR

132

429

BB

422

1129

K

1272

898

LOB

910

Current series

PHI leads series 1-0

Aug 29PHIPHI5@LAALAA3
Aug 30PHIPHI@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 30PHIPHI@LAALAAtoday

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Aug 29PHIPHI5@LAALAA3
Aug 30PHIPHI@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 30PHIPHI@LAALAAtoday

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
PHIPHISP
Z. Wheeler

Z. Wheeler

#45 · 10-5

ERA

3.40

K

148

SV

—

Last 3 starts

8/25@SEASEA4.0 IP · 8 ER · 4 KL(10-5)
8/18vsMIAMIA5.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 K-
8/12@STLSTL5.0 IP · 4 ER · 5 KL(10-4)
VS
LAALAASP
Y. Kikuchi

Y. Kikuchi

#16 · 0-4

ERA

6.25

K

37

SV

—

Last 3 starts

8/23@TEXTEX5.0 IP · 5 ER · 4 KL(0-4)
4/29@CHWCHW2.0 IP · 0 ER · 1 K-
4/24@KCKC5.0 IP · 5 ER · 5 KL(0-3)

Scouting report

PHI @ LAA

8/30 - 4:07 PM EDT
StorylineLAA lost 5 in a row.

Rest going in

PHIStandard

1 day

last game Aug 28

LAAStandard

1 day

last game Aug 28

Tale of the tape

PHImetricLAA

75-60

Record

52-83

#5

Conf rank

#15

+0.1

Pt diff

-0.6

W2

Streak

L5

8-2

Last 10

3-7

Bullpen used yesterday

PHI

3.0 bullpen IP · heavy

  • J. Alvarado1.0 IP19 P
  • A. McFarlane1.0 IP21 P
  • J. Bowlan1.0 IP25 P

W 5-3 · Aug 28

LAA

3.0 bullpen IP · heavy

  • J. Fermin1.0 IP15 P
  • R. Watson0.2 IP17 P
  • T. Saucedo0.1 IP6 P
  • B. Joyce0.2 IP26 P
  • S. Peralta0.1 IP15 P

L 5-3 · Aug 28

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.