Recent form
7-3
LAD +1.3 vs DET -1.4 margin
LAD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers
LAD
LAD
81-54
PregameSun, 1:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
DET
DET
62-72
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketComerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Tyler Glasnow
SP · #31
3-0
W-L
3.02
ERA
0.87
WHIP
56
K
44.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@ATL-5.0 IP3 ER7 K
@HOU-1.0 IP1 ER2 K
vsMIA-5.2 IP2 ER9 K
Home starter
Framber Valdez
SP · #59
8-9
W-L
4.35
ERA
1.41
WHIP
111
K
144.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTBL(8-9)6.0 IP3 ER0 K
@PITW(8-8)5.2 IP4 ER5 K
vsCLEL(7-8)5.2 IP4 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob64% / 36%
LeanAway · 14pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesLAD lead series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
DET vs LAD.
DET is 2-8 recently; LAD is 7-3.
36.4%
model · DET win prob
Recent form
- DET2–8-1.4
- LAD7–3+1.3
Situational
- DET2d rest
- LAD2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. DET has 0 straight road games; LAD has 4.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.7strikeouts · ±2.4
Tarik Skubal · 7.7 K · last-10 8 vs season 7.3.
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.6strikeouts · ±2.3
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.6 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.4.
- Framber ValdezDET3.9strikeouts · ±2.8
Framber Valdez · 3.9 K · last-10 3.6 vs season 4.3.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
DET is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-28LAD @ DET2–1
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
35.4%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
41.7%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
40.1%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.7%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.75 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DET vs LAD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 104 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.7± 2.4high
- Tyler GlasnowLAD7.0± 3.1low
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.6± 2.3high
Hits
- Freddie FreemanLAD1.2± 1.0high
- Gleyber TorresDET1.0± 0.9high
- Kevin McGonigleDET1.0± 0.9high
Total bases
- Shohei OhtaniLAD2.2± 3.1high
- Max MuncyLAD1.9± 2.2high
- Eduardo ValenciaDET1.7± 1.8high
RBIs
- Brett CallahanDET0.7± 1.2low
- Kevin McGonigleDET0.7± 1.1high
- Max MuncyLAD0.7± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Framber ValdezDET2.9± 1.9high
- Eric LauerLAD2.5± 1.9high
- Jackson JobeDET2.0± 3.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAD
league avg
DET
.759
OPS
◀
.718
.715
.336
OBP
◀
.318
.315
4.91
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.43
3.65
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.58
1.16
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.22
9.3
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.2
The One modelEdge
Sun, Aug 30LAD★
Dodgers
96-68
vs63.7%LAD
DET
Tigers
65-87
LAD 63.7%win prob36.3% DET
LAD 1553 · DET 1471Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- MarlinsNationals8/30 - 12:15 PM EDT
- Red SoxYankees8/30 - 1:35 PM EDT
- RockiesBraves8/30 - 1:35 PM EDT
- MarinersBlue Jays8/30 - 1:37 PM EDT
- RoyalsGuardians8/30 - 1:40 PM EDT
- PadresRays8/30 - 1:40 PM EDT
- White SoxTwins8/30 - 2:10 PM EDT
- RangersBrewers8/30 - 2:10 PM EDT
- PiratesCardinals8/30 - 2:15 PM EDT
- AstrosMets8/30 - 3:10 PM EDT
- OriolesAthletics8/30 - 4:05 PM EDT
- PhilliesAngels8/30 - 4:07 PM EDT
- RedsCubs8/30 - 7:20 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
