Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 30, 2026

LAD

81-55

PregameSun, 1:40 PM EDTMLB.TV

DET

63-72

ATS/LAD -1.5O/U/7.5ML/LAD-171

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

6-4

LAD +0.6 vs DET -1.6 margin

LAD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

DET no-vig %

39.2%

open 40.9% · -1.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Tyler Glasnow

SP · #31

3-0

W-L

3.02

ERA

0.87

WHIP

44.2

Last 3 starts

@ATL-5.0 IP3 ER7 K

@HOU-1.0 IP1 ER2 K

vsMIA-5.2 IP2 ER9 K

Home starter

Framber Valdez

SP · #59

8-9

W-L

4.35

ERA

1.41

WHIP

111

144.2

Last 3 starts

vsTBL(8-9)6.0 IP3 ER0 K

@PITW(8-8)5.2 IP4 ER5 K

vsCLEL(7-8)5.2 IP4 ER3 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 7.5

Money-171 / +159

Model edge

Win prob61% / 39%

LeanAway · 11pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take LAD on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-171Bet LAD ML↗-171Bet LAD ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 7.5Bet the total↗O/U 7.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

DET vs LAD.

DET is 2-8 recently; LAD is 6-4.

38.9%

model · DET win prob

Recent form

DET2–8-1.6
LAD6–4+0.6

Situational

DET1d restB2B
LAD1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. DET has 0 straight road games; LAD has 5.

Model angle

Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.1pp

Players to watch

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.6strikeouts · ±2.4
Tarik Skubal · 7.6 K · last-10 7.8 vs season 7.3.
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.6strikeouts · ±2.3
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.6 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.4.
Framber ValdezDET
3.9strikeouts · ±2.8
Framber Valdez · 3.9 K · last-10 3.6 vs season 4.3.

Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2

DET is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-08-28LAD @ DET2–1
2026-08-29LAD @ DET1–2

Line move

open +134→+144toward LAD

The market has moved 1.8pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

37.4%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
43.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.4%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.6%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.19

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+134

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

40.9%

Close no-vig

38.7%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

LAD

no live price

DET

no live price

Book	LAD	DET	Best edge
DraftKings	-166	+154	+0.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DET vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.6± 2.4high
Blake SnellLAD
7.2± 3.5low
Tyler GlasnowLAD
7.0± 3.1low

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.2± 0.8high
Mookie BettsLAD
1.0± 0.9high
Tommy EdmanLAD
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Max MuncyLAD
1.6± 2.2high
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.5± 1.7high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.5± 1.8high

RBIs

Brett CallahanDET
0.6± 1.1low
Kevin McGonigleDET
0.6± 1.1high
Max MuncyLAD
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
2.9± 1.9high
Eric LauerLAD
2.5± 1.9high
Jackson JobeDET
2.0± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

DET

.757

OPS

◀

.718

.716

.335

OBP

◀

.318

.316

4.88

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.41

3.64

Team ERA

4.15

▶

3.56

1.16

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.22

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

The One modelEdge

Sun, Aug 30

LAD★

Dodgers

96-69

vs61.1%LAD

DET

Tigers

66-87

LAD 61.1%win prob38.9% DET

LAD 1548 · DET 1475Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take LAD on the model side.

DET vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

DET vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.