Recent form
6-4
CHW +0.2 vs MIN -1.1 margin
CHW brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
CHW
CHW
71-63
PregameSun, 2:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
MIN
MIN
64-71
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTarget Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
Zebby Matthews
SP · #52
8-8
W-L
4.86
ERA
1.31
WHIP
88
K
103.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@ATHW(8-8)7.0 IP1 ER7 K
vsATLW(7-8)5.2 IP1 ER4 K
vsBALW(6-8)5.0 IP4 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob51% / 49%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesCHW lead series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
MIN vs CHW.
MIN has dropped 3 straight; CHW is 6-4 over its last 10.
49.3%
model · MIN win prob
Recent form
- MIN4–6-1.1
- CHW6–4+0.2
Situational
- MIN2d rest
- CHW2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIN has 0 straight road games; CHW has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Taj BradleyMIN6.6strikeouts · ±3.0
Taj Bradley · 6.6 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.5.
- Sean BurkeCHW6.3strikeouts · ±3.3
Sean Burke · 6.3 K · last-10 6.6 vs season 6.
- Anthony KayCHW4.2strikeouts · ±1.4
Anthony Kay · 4.2 K · last-10 4.3 vs season 4.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
MIN is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-28CHW @ MIN7–4
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.1%
ensemble · CHW favored
Elo Static
48.0%
P(MIN win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
48.0%
P(MIN win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.7%
P(MIN win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.15 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs CHW.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 112 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Taj BradleyMIN6.6± 3.0high
- Sean BurkeCHW6.3± 3.3high
- Connor PrielippMIN5.7± 2.4medium
Hits
- Kaelen CulpepperMIN1.3± 1.4medium
- Miguel VargasCHW1.1± 0.7high
- Kody ClemensMIN1.1± 0.8high
Total bases
- Tristan PetersCHW2.3± 2.9high
- Brooks LeeMIN2.1± 2.3high
- Kaelen CulpepperMIN2.0± 1.8medium
RBIs
- Tristan PetersCHW0.8± 1.1high
- Kody ClemensMIN0.8± 1.1high
- Brooks LeeMIN0.7± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Connor PrielippMIN3.4± 2.3medium
- Dean KremerMIN3.2± 3.2low
- Zebby MatthewsMIN3.1± 2.5medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHW
league avg
MIN
.732
OPS
.718
.725
.320
OBP
.318
.319
4.84
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.59
4.16
Team ERA
◀
4.16
4.70
1.32
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.39
8.5
K / 9
8.5
8.4
The One modelTossup
Sun, Aug 30CHW★
White Sox
87-70
vs50.7%CHW
MIN
Twins
86-77
CHW 50.7%win prob49.3% MIN
CHW 1531 · MIN 1493Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
