Chicago Sky at New York Liberty
CHI
4-12
NY
11-6
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
hicago Sky visit New York Liberty Saturday at 8/29 - 1:00 PM EDT. NY is rolling — 6-2 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
NY
Home
43
FG %
46
Season series
NY leads series 1-0
NY96@CHI95CHI@NYupcomingNY@CHIupcomingCHI@NYtodayScouting report
CHI @ NY
Tale of the tape
4-12
Record
11-6
#6
Conf rank
#2
-6.5
Pt diff
+5.6
L6
Streak
L2
1-9
Last 10
8-2
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.2%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY18.2± 7.6medium
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Skylar DigginsCHI14.9± 7.8medium
Rebounds
- Jonquel JonesNY9.5± 3.9medium
- Breanna StewartNY8.8± 2.3medium
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.1± 4.9medium
Assists
- Skylar DigginsCHI4.3± 3.1medium
- Natasha CloudCHI4.1± 2.8medium
- Pauline AstierNY4.1± 1.7medium
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.9± 2.1medium
- Jonquel JonesNY1.6± 1.3medium
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.2± 1.1medium
Steals
- Breanna StewartNY1.5± 1.4medium
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.1± 1.2low
- Gabriela JaquezCHI1.1± 1.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
NY
42.6%
FG%
44.7
▶46.2%
31.4%
3PT %
33.5
▶34.8%
83.7
PPG
85.9
▶89.1
19.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
12.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.6