Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at NY?

The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

CHI

15-24

PregameSat, 1:00 PM EDTCBS, Paramount+

23-16

ATS/NY -8.5O/U/179.5ML/NY-380

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

7-3

NY +3.8 vs CHI -4.8 margin

NY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

-2.0 days

NY 2 rest vs CHI 4

CHI has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+150.3

NY Elo vs CHI Elo

NY owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing CHI uphill early today again.

WNBASat, Aug 298/29 - 1:00 PM EDTSeriesNY leads series 2-1VegasNY -8.5

Preview · WNBA

hicago Sky visit New York Liberty Saturday at 8/29 - 1:00 PM EDT. CHI is 3-5 in their last 8. NY is 4-3 in their last 7.

Vegas opened NY as a 8.5-point favorite with the total at 179.5. NY's moneyline implies a 79% break-even, CHI the inverse. CHI comes in with 2 extra days of rest.

For bettors: the NY side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 179.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

Home

FG %

Season series

NY leads series 2-1

Jun 18

NY96@

CHI95

Jul 22

CHI94@

NY95

Aug 19

NY86@

CHI93

Aug 29

CHI@

NYtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

179.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

CHI+30025%

NY-38079%

20· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -8.5↗SpreadBet NY -8.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

179.5

+1.0 since open

Scouting report

CHI @ NY

8/29 - 1:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

CHI +2 days

CHILong rest

3 days

last game Aug 25

NYStandard

1 day

last game Aug 27

Model edge vs market

Strong edge

Spread

Market

NY -8.5

Model

NY -23.5

Edge

+15.0 pts

Total

Market

179.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

NY -380

Model

Edge

aligned

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

CHImetricNY

15-24

Record

23-16

Conf rank

-2.6

Pt diff

+2.5

Streak

4-6

Last 10

7-3

34.2

Power score

57.7

#10

Power rank

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

NY -8.5·O/U 179.5·CHI +300/NY -380

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

NY vs CHI.

NY is 7-3 recently; CHI is 4-6.

84.0%

model · NY win prob

Recent form

NY7–3+3.8
CHI4–6-4.8

Situational

NY2d rest
CHI4d rest
-2.0d differential

CHI has 2 more rest days. NY has 0 straight road games; CHI has 1.

Model angle

+8.1ppon NY

NY's edge is mostly venue split plus model confidence. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.

▲Venue split+1.5pp
▲Model confidence+0.9pp
▼Rest advantage-0.6pp

Players to watch

Breanna StewartNY
18.8points · ±5.8
Breanna Stewart · 18.8 pts · last-10 18.1 vs season 19.9.
Kamilla CardosoCHI
15.9points · ±4.0
Kamilla Cardoso · 15.9 pts · last-10 16.8 vs season 14.5.
Sabrina IonescuNY
15.4points · ±6.4
Sabrina Ionescu · 15.4 pts · last-10 15.6 vs season 15.1.

Head-to-head · 3-2 · last 5

NY is 3-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-08-21CHI @ NY91–85
2025-09-12NY @ CHI91–86
2026-06-17NY @ CHI96–95
2026-07-22CHI @ NY94–95
2026-08-18NY @ CHI86–93

Line move

open -355→-380toward NY

The market has moved 1.1pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

82.4%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
78.0%
P(NY win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
77.4%
P(NY win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
74.7%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like NY.

NY's edge is mostly venue split plus model confidence. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.

+8.1

pp edge · NY

+1.22

CLV pp

5.0u · large

on NY

90.7%

±6.3pp band

5u large — +11.5pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+14.7pp

+6.6pp post-cal

Kelly

55.3%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.26

+11.5pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 8.1pp · NY over CHI

▲
Venue split70% conf
NY's venue form is 60pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.5pp
▲
Model confidence82% conf
NY grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+0.9pp
▼
Rest advantage65% conf
CHI has the rest edge entering this game.
-0.6pp
▲
Line steam68% conf
The market moved 1.2pp toward NY since open.
+0.5pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
NY has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

-355

Close price

-380

Open no-vig

74.8%

Close no-vig

76.0%

Market came to the model

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at NY?: The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.1pp

best edge · NY · DraftKings

CHI

no live price

★ best

-380DraftKings

edge +8.1pp · implied 76.0%

Book	CHI	NY	Best edge
DraftKings	+300	-380★	+8.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NY vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
18.8± 5.8high
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low
Kamilla CardosoCHI
15.9± 4.0high

Rebounds

Kamilla CardosoCHI
9.5± 2.9high
Jonquel JonesNY
9.3± 4.8high
Breanna StewartNY
7.4± 2.1high

Assists

Courtney VanderslootCHI
5.7± 2.2high
Natasha CloudCHI
5.7± 2.2high
Sabrina IonescuNY
5.3± 3.0high

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.4± 0.9high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low
Jonquel JonesNY
1.2± 1.1high

Steals

Leonie FiebichNY
1.3± 0.9medium
Natasha CloudCHI
1.2± 0.9high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.1± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Chicago SkyNew York Liberty

Elsewhere in the WNBA

TempoMercury8/29 - 10:00 PM EDT

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Chicago Sky at New York Liberty

NY vs CHI.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like NY.

Where to bet this game.

NY vs CHI.