Park factor
98 total idx
Busch Stadium run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
PIT
PIT
65-71
PregameSun, 2:15 PM EDTMLB.TV
STL
STL
68-68
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketBusch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Braxton Ashcraft
SP · #35
13-5
W-L
3.59
ERA
1.07
WHIP
161
K
155.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@SD-6.0 IP1 ER2 K
vsDETW(13-5)8.0 IP1 ER4 K
@MIAW(12-5)9.0 IP1 ER10 K
Home starter
Matthew Liberatore
SP · #32
5-12
W-L
5.44
ERA
1.47
WHIP
132
K
129.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsBALL(5-12)4.0 IP8 ER7 K
@CINL(5-11)6.0 IP3 ER9 K
@CHCL(5-10)5.1 IP2 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSTL leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
STL vs PIT.
STL is 4-6 recently; PIT is 4-6.
58.6%
model · STL win prob
Recent form
- STL4–6-1.7
- PIT4–6-0.9
Situational
- STL2d rest
- PIT2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. STL has 0 straight road games; PIT has 7.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.2pp
Players to watch
- Paul SkenesPIT6.3strikeouts · ±2.2
Paul Skenes · 6.3 K · last-10 6.1 vs season 6.5.
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL5.8strikeouts · ±2.1
Matthew Liberatore · 5.8 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 5.1.
- Braxton AshcraftPIT5.7strikeouts · ±2.5
Braxton Ashcraft · 5.7 K · last-10 5.4 vs season 6.2.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
STL is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-28PIT @ STL1–4
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.3%
ensemble · STL favored
Elo Static
55.7%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.5%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.11 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
STL vs PIT.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 119 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Paul SkenesPIT6.3± 2.2high
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL5.8± 2.1high
- Braxton AshcraftPIT5.7± 2.5high
Hits
- Alec BurlesonSTL1.2± 0.4high
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.2± 0.9high
- Nick GonzalesPIT1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Jordan WalkerSTL2.2± 1.8high
- Esmerlyn ValdezPIT1.7± 1.6high
- Oneil CruzPIT1.7± 1.9high
RBIs
- Oneil CruzPIT0.8± 0.9high
- Jordan WalkerSTL0.8± 1.4high
- Alec BurlesonSTL0.7± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Quinn MathewsSTL3.3± 4.3low
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL3.0± 2.5high
- Braxton AshcraftPIT2.7± 2.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
PIT
league avg
STL
.732
OPS
◀
.718
.699
.329
OBP
◀
.318
.316
4.84
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.44
4.21
Team ERA
4.16
4.22
1.31
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.34
9.3
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.8
The One modelEdge
Sun, Aug 30PIT
Pirates
70-79
vs58.6%STL
STL★
Cardinals
80-73
PIT 41.4%win prob58.6% STL
STL 1498 · PIT 1482Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
