Recent form
7-3
BOS +1.9 vs NYY +1.6 margin
BOS brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
BOS
BOS
73-61
PregameSun, 1:35 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV
NYY
NYY
76-58
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketYankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Ranger Suarez
SP · #55
5-3
W-L
3.35
ERA
1.20
WHIP
117
K
118.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@MIA-5.0 IP1 ER4 K
vsARIW(5-3)5.1 IP4 ER3 K
@TOR-5.0 IP1 ER2 K
Home starter
Will Warren
SP · #29
8-6
W-L
4.39
ERA
1.42
WHIP
126
K
127.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsHOU-5.0 IP2 ER4 K
@BAL-4.0 IP2 ER5 K
vsSEA-4.0 IP5 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob49% / 51%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesNYY lead series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
NYY vs BOS.
NYY is 7-3 recently; BOS is 7-3.
51.2%
model · NYY win prob
Recent form
- NYY7–3+1.6
- BOS7–3+1.9
Situational
- NYY2d rest
- BOS2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYY has 0 straight road games; BOS has 4.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.4strikeouts · ±2.5
Cam Schlittler · 7.4 K · last-10 7.5 vs season 7.1.
- Payton TolleBOS6.9strikeouts · ±2.7
Payton Tolle · 6.9 K · last-10 7.2 vs season 6.4.
- Sonny GrayBOS5.2strikeouts · ±1.7
Sonny Gray · 5.2 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 5.1.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
NYY is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-28BOS @ NYY0–1
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.8%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
48.9%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.6%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.54 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYY vs BOS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 112 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.4± 2.5high
- Payton TolleBOS6.9± 2.7high
- Gerrit ColeNYY6.7± 2.3medium
Hits
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.2± 1.1high
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY1.2± 1.5high
- Nick SogardBOS1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY2.3± 3.1high
- Mickey GasperBOS2.2± 2.6high
- Ben RiceNYY2.0± 1.9high
RBIs
- Mickey GasperBOS1.0± 0.9high
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY0.8± 1.1high
- Ben RiceNYY0.7± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Will WarrenNYY2.6± 2.3high
- Patrick SandovalBOS2.5± 2.9low
- Elmer RodriguezNYY2.4± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BOS
league avg
NYY
.728
OPS
◀
.718
.717
.324
OBP
◀
.318
.310
4.48
Runs / G
4.50
4.46
3.46
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.22
1.22
WHIP
1.30
▶1.18
8.7
K / 9
8.5
▶9.0
The One modelTossup
Sun, Aug 30BOS
Red Sox
83-75
vs51.2%NYY
NYY★
Yankees
87-70
BOS 48.8%win prob51.2% NYY
NYY 1537 · BOS 1568Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
