Recent form
4-6
CHC +1.7 vs CIN -1.2 margin
CHC brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
CIN
CIN
64-71
PregameSun, 7:20 PM EDTNBC
CHC
CHC
76-59
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketWrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Chase Burns
SP · #26
14-3
W-L
2.77
ERA
1.15
WHIP
164
K
139.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@SFL(14-3)3.2 IP5 ER5 K
vsSTL-5.0 IP2 ER8 K
vsMIAW(14-2)7.0 IP0 ER8 K
Home starter
Shota Imanaga
SP · #18
8-9
W-L
3.78
ERA
1.12
WHIP
144
K
145.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@SEA-2.0 IP1 ER4 K
vsCHW-6.0 IP3 ER10 K
@WSH-4.2 IP4 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob37% / 63%
LeanHome · 13pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesCIN leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CHC vs CIN.
CHC has dropped 3 straight; CIN is 4-6 over its last 10.
62.8%
model · CHC win prob
Recent form
- CHC4–6+1.7
- CIN4–6-1.2
Situational
- CHC2d rest
- CIN2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CHC has 0 straight road games; CIN has 7.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Chase BurnsCIN6.3strikeouts · ±2.5
Chase Burns · 6.3 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.6.
- Kevin GausmanCHC5.6strikeouts · ±2.2
Kevin Gausman · 5.6 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.5.
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.6strikeouts · ±2.0
Shota Imanaga · 5.6 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.5.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
CHC is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-28CIN @ CHC10–8
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
62.8%
ensemble · CHC favored
Elo Static
66.6%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.4%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
68.1%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.10 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHC vs CIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 113 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chase BurnsCIN6.3± 2.5high
- Kevin GausmanCHC5.6± 2.2high
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.6± 2.0high
Hits
- Elly De La CruzCIN1.3± 1.3high
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1.1± 1.2high
- Sal StewartCIN1.1± 0.8high
Total bases
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2.8± 3.3high
- Elly De La CruzCIN2.1± 2.4high
- Alex BregmanCHC1.9± 2.9high
RBIs
- Ian HappCHC0.8± 1.7high
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC0.8± 1.3high
- Sal StewartCIN0.8± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Brady SingerCIN2.8± 0.9high
- Kevin GausmanCHC2.7± 1.8high
- Andrew AbbottCIN2.7± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CIN
league avg
CHC
.701
OPS
.718
▶.761
.307
OBP
.318
▶.338
4.13
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.21
4.58
Team ERA
4.16
▶4.12
1.42
WHIP
1.30
▶1.25
8.2
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.7
The One modelEdge
Sun, Aug 30CIN
Reds
73-83
vs62.8%CHC
CHC★
Cubs
89-70
CIN 37.2%win prob62.8% CHC
CHC 1554 · CIN 1458Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
