Recent form
6-4
ATL 0.0 vs COL -2.1 margin
ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
COL
COL
52-83
PregameSun, 1:35 PM EDTMLB.TV
ATL
ATL
80-55
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTruist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
M
Mason Adams
RP · #38
0-0
W-L
2.25
ERA
1.50
WHIP
5
K
4.0
IP
Last 1 starts
@WSH-4.0 IP1 ER5 K
Home starter
Tyler Mahle
SP · #54
5-10
W-L
4.41
ERA
1.32
WHIP
112
K
118.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMILW(5-10)5.0 IP1 ER4 K
@MINL(4-10)6.2 IP2 ER3 K
vsNYMW(4-9)6.0 IP1 ER7 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob35% / 65%
LeanHome · 15pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesATL leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ATL vs COL.
ATL enters on a 5-game win streak; COL is 2-8 over its last 10.
64.7%
model · ATL win prob
Recent form
- ATL6–4+0.0
- COL2–8-2.1
Situational
- ATL2d rest
- COL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATL has 0 straight road games; COL has 5.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Chris SaleATL7.6strikeouts · ±2.7
Chris Sale · 7.6 K · last-10 7.8 vs season 7.4.
- Tyler MahleATL5.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Tyler Mahle · 5.1 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.1.
- Bryce ElderATL4.6strikeouts · ±1.6
Bryce Elder · 4.6 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.7.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
ATL is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-28COL @ ATL4–6
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
64.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
71.2%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
68.6%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
71.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.17 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs COL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 102 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chris SaleATL7.6± 2.7high
- Tyler MahleATL5.1± 2.4high
- Bryce ElderATL4.6± 1.6high
Hits
- Michael Harris IIATL1.2± 0.8high
- Drake BaldwinATL1.1± 1.1high
- Mauricio DubonATL1.1± 1.0high
Total bases
- Drake BaldwinATL2.0± 2.1high
- Michael Harris IIATL2.0± 1.6high
- Hunter GoodmanCOL1.9± 2.2high
RBIs
- Connor NorbyCOL0.7± 1.5high
- Hunter GoodmanCOL0.6± 0.8high
- Mickey MoniakCOL0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Ryan FeltnerCOL3.8± 2.2high
- Gabriel HughesCOL3.5± 3.1low
- Tomoyuki SuganoCOL3.3± 2.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
COL
league avg
ATL
.740
OPS
◀
.718
.725
.324
OBP
◀
.318
.312
4.75
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.67
5.54
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.58
1.53
WHIP
1.30
▶1.25
6.9
K / 9
8.5
▶8.6
The One modelEdge
Sun, Aug 30COL
Rockies
58-97
vs64.7%ATL
ATL★
Braves
94-66
COL 35.3%win prob64.7% ATL
ATL 1545 · COL 1411Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- MarlinsNationals8/30 - 12:15 PM EDT
- Red SoxYankees8/30 - 1:35 PM EDT
- MarinersBlue Jays8/30 - 1:37 PM EDT
- RoyalsGuardians8/30 - 1:40 PM EDT
- DodgersTigers8/30 - 1:40 PM EDT
- PadresRays8/30 - 1:40 PM EDT
- White SoxTwins8/30 - 2:10 PM EDT
- RangersBrewers8/30 - 2:10 PM EDT
- PiratesCardinals8/30 - 2:15 PM EDT
- AstrosMets8/30 - 3:10 PM EDT
- OriolesAthletics8/30 - 4:05 PM EDT
- PhilliesAngels8/30 - 4:07 PM EDT
- RedsCubs8/30 - 7:20 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
