Recent form
7-3
NYY +1.6 vs BOS +1.5 margin
NYY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
BOS
BOS
73-60
PregameSat, 7:15 PM EDTMLB.TV, FOX
NYY
NYY
75-58
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketYankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob51% / 49%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesNYY win series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
NYY vs BOS.
NYY is 7-3 recently; BOS is 7-3.
49.4%
model · NYY win prob
Recent form
- NYY7–3+1.6
- BOS7–3+1.5
Situational
- NYY2d rest
- BOS3d rest
- -1.0d differential
BOS has 1 more rest day. NYY has 0 straight road games; BOS has 3.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.4strikeouts · ±2.5
Cam Schlittler · 7.4 K · last-10 7.5 vs season 7.1.
- Payton TolleBOS6.9strikeouts · ±2.7
Payton Tolle · 6.9 K · last-10 7.2 vs season 6.4.
- Sonny GrayBOS5.2strikeouts · ±1.7
Sonny Gray · 5.2 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 5.1.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.5%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
47.7%
P(NYY win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
47.7%
P(NYY win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.9%
P(NYY win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.40 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYY vs BOS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 109 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.4± 2.5high
- Payton TolleBOS6.9± 2.7high
- Gerrit ColeNYY6.8± 2.3medium
Hits
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.2± 1.1high
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY1.2± 1.4high
- Nick SogardBOS1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY2.4± 3.0high
- Mickey GasperBOS2.2± 2.6high
- Nick SogardBOS1.9± 2.2high
RBIs
- Mickey GasperBOS1.0± 0.9high
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY0.8± 1.1high
- Ben RiceNYY0.7± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Will WarrenNYY2.6± 2.3high
- Patrick SandovalBOS2.5± 2.9low
- Elmer RodriguezNYY2.4± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BOS
league avg
NYY
.729
OPS
◀
.719
.718
.324
OBP
◀
.318
.310
4.51
Runs / G
4.50
4.48
3.47
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.24
1.22
WHIP
1.30
▶1.18
8.7
K / 9
8.5
▶9.0
The One modelTossup
Sat, Aug 29BOS★
Red Sox
83-74
vs50.6%BOS
NYY
Yankees
86-70
BOS 50.6%win prob49.4% NYY
BOS 1572 · NYY 1532Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- Red SoxYankees8/29 - 1:05 PM EDT
- DodgersTigers8/29 - 1:10 PM EDT
- White SoxTwins8/29 - 2:10 PM EDT
- PiratesCardinals8/29 - 2:15 PM EDT
- RedsCubs8/29 - 2:20 PM EDT
- MarinersBlue Jays8/29 - 3:07 PM EDT
- MarlinsNationals8/29 - 4:05 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksGiants8/29 - 4:05 PM EDT
- RockiesBraves8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- AstrosMets8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- RoyalsGuardians8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- PadresRays8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- RangersBrewers8/29 - 7:15 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksGiants8/29 - 10:05 PM EDT
- OriolesAthletics8/29 - 10:05 PM EDT
- PhilliesAngels8/29 - 10:07 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant