Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 29, 2026

LAD

80-54

PregameSat, 1:10 PM EDTMLB.TV

DET

62-71

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

6-4

LAD +0.8 vs DET -1.5 margin

LAD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Blake Snell

SP · #7

2-1

W-L

2.57

ERA

1.05

WHIP

21.0

Last 3 starts

vsPITW(2-1)6.0 IP0 ER6 K

@COLW(1-1)6.0 IP1 ER5 K

vsKC-6.0 IP1 ER10 K

Home starter

Keider Montero

SP · #54

9-8

W-L

3.30

ERA

1.00

WHIP

133.2

Last 3 starts

@PITL(9-8)5.0 IP3 ER3 K

vsCLEW(9-7)6.1 IP0 ER0 K

@SFL(8-7)6.0 IP5 ER5 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob61% / 39%

LeanAway · 11pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 8/28

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

DET vs LAD.

DET is 2-8 recently; LAD is 6-4.

38.6%

model · DET win prob

Recent form

DET2–8-1.5
LAD6–4+0.8

Situational

DET3d rest
LAD2d rest
+1.0d differential

DET has 1 more rest day. DET has 0 straight road games; LAD has 3.

Model angle

Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.1pp

Players to watch

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.7strikeouts · ±2.4
Tarik Skubal · 7.7 K · last-10 8 vs season 7.3.
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4strikeouts · ±2.3
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.4 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 6.3.
Framber ValdezDET
3.9strikeouts · ±2.8
Framber Valdez · 3.9 K · last-10 3.6 vs season 4.3.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.0%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
42.6%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.8%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.6%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.7± 2.4high
Tyler GlasnowLAD
7.0± 3.1low
Blake SnellLAD
6.5± 3.2low

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.1± 1.1high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.1± 1.2high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 3.0high
Max MuncyLAD
1.9± 2.2high
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

Brett CallahanDET
0.7± 1.2low
Kevin McGonigleDET
0.7± 1.1high
Max MuncyLAD
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
2.9± 1.9high
Eric LauerLAD
2.5± 1.9high
Jackson JobeDET
2.0± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

DET

.759

OPS

◀

.719

.717

.335

OBP

◀

.318

.316

4.93

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.45

3.67

Team ERA

4.16

▶

3.60

1.16

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.22

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

The One modelEdge

Sat, Aug 29

LAD★

Dodgers

95-68

vs61.3%LAD

DET

Tigers

65-86

LAD 61.3%win prob38.7% DET

LAD 1549 · DET 1474Box score→

Team pages

Los Angeles DodgersDetroit Tigers

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers

The matchup, end-to-end.

DET vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs LAD.