Recent form
7-3
MIL +4.1 vs TEX -0.3 margin
MIL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers
TEX
TEX
66-68
PregameSat, 7:15 PM EDTMLB.TV, FOX
MIL
MIL
83-51
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketAmerican Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Cal Quantrill
RP · #44
6-4
W-L
2.90
ERA
1.14
WHIP
60
K
83.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsLAAW(6-4)6.0 IP0 ER6 K
vsWSHW(5-4)7.0 IP0 ER5 K
@LAA-5.0 IP1 ER6 K
Home starter
S
Shane Drohan
SP · #55
6-5
W-L
3.84
ERA
1.29
WHIP
104
K
105.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsATLL(6-5)5.0 IP2 ER5 K
vsSEA-2.0 IP0 ER1 K
@LAD-5.1 IP3 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesMIL wins series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
MIL vs TEX.
MIL is 7-3 recently; TEX is 5-5.
61.2%
model · MIL win prob
Recent form
- MIL7–3+4.1
- TEX5–5-0.3
Situational
- MIL2d rest
- TEX3d rest
- -1.0d differential
TEX has 1 more rest day. MIL has 3 straight road games; TEX has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL8.7strikeouts · ±2.2
Jacob Misiorowski · 8.7 K · last-10 8.5 vs season 9.
- Jacob deGromTEX6.2strikeouts · ±2.9
Jacob deGrom · 6.2 K · last-10 6.1 vs season 6.4.
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.0strikeouts · ±2.0
MacKenzie Gore · 6 K · last-10 6.1 vs season 5.9.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.2%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
61.9%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.8%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.9%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.86 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIL vs TEX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 117 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL8.7± 2.2high
- Logan HendersonMIL6.2± 2.4low
- Jacob deGromTEX6.2± 2.9high
Hits
- William ContrerasMIL1.4± 1.4high
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.2± 1.1high
- Corey SeagerTEX1.2± 1.1high
Total bases
- William ContrerasMIL2.0± 2.0high
- Corey SeagerTEX1.9± 2.0high
- Jake BurgerTEX1.9± 2.4high
RBIs
- Jake BauersMIL0.7± 0.9high
- Brice TurangMIL0.6± 1.0high
- Christian YelichMIL0.6± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Robert GasserMIL2.7± 2.1medium
- Jacob deGromTEX2.7± 2.4high
- Kumar RockerTEX2.7± 2.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TEX
league avg
MIL
.713
OPS
.719
▶.735
.317
OBP
.318
▶.338
4.05
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.99
4.27
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.38
1.30
WHIP
1.30
▶1.17
8.7
K / 9
8.5
▶9.7
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 29TEX
Rangers
82-77
vs61.2%MIL
MIL★
Brewers
87-65
TEX 38.8%win prob61.2% MIL
MIL 1546 · TEX 1485Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- Red SoxYankees8/29 - 1:05 PM EDT
- DodgersTigers8/29 - 1:10 PM EDT
- White SoxTwins8/29 - 2:10 PM EDT
- PiratesCardinals8/29 - 2:15 PM EDT
- RedsCubs8/29 - 2:20 PM EDT
- MarinersBlue Jays8/29 - 3:07 PM EDT
- MarlinsNationals8/29 - 4:05 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksGiants8/29 - 4:05 PM EDT
- RockiesBraves8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- AstrosMets8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- RoyalsGuardians8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- PadresRays8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- Red SoxYankees8/29 - 7:15 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksGiants8/29 - 10:05 PM EDT
- OriolesAthletics8/29 - 10:05 PM EDT
- PhilliesAngels8/29 - 10:07 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
