Recent form
6-4
ATL 0.0 vs COL -2.1 margin
ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
COL
COL
52-83
PregameSat, 4:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
ATL
ATL
80-55
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTruist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Line movement
200 snapshots
ATL spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 9.0
ATL no-vig %
66.7%
open 66.8% · -0.1
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Ryan Feltner
SP · #18
5-8
W-L
6.08
ERA
1.55
WHIP
70
K
97.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@WSHL(5-8)5.2 IP5 ER6 K
vsLADL(5-7)5.0 IP7 ER3 K
@ARIW(5-6)5.0 IP2 ER2 K
Home starter
Martin Perez
SP · #33
8-8
W-L
3.12
ERA
1.21
WHIP
85
K
115.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@MILL(8-8)4.0 IP1 ER2 K
@MINL(8-7)5.0 IP4 ER3 K
vsNYMW(8-6)6.0 IP0 ER2 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9
Money+201 / -217
Model edge
Win prob35% / 65%
LeanHome · 15pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesATL leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take ATL on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
ATL vs COL.
ATL enters on a 5-game win streak; COL is 2-8 over its last 10.
64.7%
model · ATL win prob
Recent form
- ATL6–4+0.0
- COL2–8-2.1
Situational
- ATL1d restB2B
- COL1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATL has 0 straight road games; COL has 5.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Chris SaleATL7.6strikeouts · ±2.7
Chris Sale · 7.6 K · last-10 7.8 vs season 7.4.
- Tyler MahleATL5.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Tyler Mahle · 5.1 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.1.
- Bryce ElderATL4.6strikeouts · ±1.6
Bryce Elder · 4.6 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.7.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
ATL is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-28COL @ ATL4–6
Line move
open -231→-230flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
65.1%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
71.2%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
74.8%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
71.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.74 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
88% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs COL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 104 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chris SaleATL7.6± 2.7high
- Tyler MahleATL5.1± 2.4high
- Bryce ElderATL4.6± 1.6high
Hits
- Michael Harris IIATL1.3± 0.8high
- Mauricio DubonATL1.2± 1.0high
- Drake BaldwinATL1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Michael Harris IIATL2.3± 2.0high
- Hunter GoodmanCOL2.1± 2.1high
- Drake BaldwinATL1.9± 2.0high
RBIs
- Michael Harris IIATL0.7± 0.9high
- Connor NorbyCOL0.7± 1.5high
- Hunter GoodmanCOL0.7± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Ryan FeltnerCOL3.8± 2.2high
- Gabriel HughesCOL3.5± 3.1low
- Tomoyuki SuganoCOL3.4± 2.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
COL
league avg
ATL
.740
OPS
◀
.718
.725
.324
OBP
◀
.318
.312
4.75
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.67
5.54
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.58
1.53
WHIP
1.30
▶1.25
6.9
K / 9
8.5
▶8.6
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 29COL
Rockies
58-97
vs64.7%ATL
ATL★
Braves
94-66
COL 35.3%win prob64.7% ATL
ATL 1545 · COL 1411Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- Red SoxYankees8/29 - 1:05 PM EDT
- DodgersTigers8/29 - 1:10 PM EDT
- White SoxTwins8/29 - 2:10 PM EDT
- PiratesCardinals8/29 - 2:15 PM EDT
- RedsCubs8/29 - 2:20 PM EDT
- MarinersBlue Jays8/29 - 3:07 PM EDT
- MarlinsNationals8/29 - 4:05 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksGiants8/29 - 4:05 PM EDT
- AstrosMets8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- RoyalsGuardians8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- PadresRays8/29 - 4:10 PM EDT
- Red SoxYankees8/29 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RangersBrewers8/29 - 7:15 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksGiants8/29 - 10:05 PM EDT
- OriolesAthletics8/29 - 10:05 PM EDT
- PhilliesAngels8/29 - 10:07 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
