Park factor
98 total idx
Busch Stadium run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
PIT
PIT
65-70
PregameSat, 2:15 PM EDTMLB.TV
STL
STL
67-68
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketBusch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
Kyle Leahy
SP · #62
10-4
W-L
3.13
ERA
1.30
WHIP
115
K
126.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@PHI-4.0 IP0 ER4 K
@CINW(10-4)5.0 IP0 ER6 K
vsPHIW(9-4)5.0 IP1 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob42% / 58%
LeanHome · 8pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
STL vs PIT.
STL is 4-6 recently; PIT is 5-5.
58.4%
model · STL win prob
Recent form
- STL4–6-1.9
- PIT5–5-0.1
Situational
- STL2d rest
- PIT3d rest
- -1.0d differential
PIT has 1 more rest day. STL has 0 straight road games; PIT has 6.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.2pp
Players to watch
- Paul SkenesPIT6.3strikeouts · ±2.2
Paul Skenes · 6.3 K · last-10 6.1 vs season 6.5.
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL5.8strikeouts · ±2.1
Matthew Liberatore · 5.8 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 5.1.
- Braxton AshcraftPIT5.7strikeouts · ±2.5
Braxton Ashcraft · 5.7 K · last-10 5.4 vs season 6.2.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.4%
ensemble · STL favored
Elo Static
54.6%
P(STL win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
54.6%
P(STL win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.8%
P(STL win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.10 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
STL vs PIT.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 117 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Paul SkenesPIT6.3± 2.2high
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL5.8± 2.1high
- Braxton AshcraftPIT5.7± 2.5high
Hits
- Alec BurlesonSTL1.2± 0.4high
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.2± 0.9high
- Nick GonzalesPIT1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Jordan WalkerSTL2.2± 1.8high
- Esmerlyn ValdezPIT1.7± 1.6high
- Oneil CruzPIT1.7± 1.9high
RBIs
- Oneil CruzPIT0.8± 0.9high
- Alec BurlesonSTL0.8± 0.9high
- Jordan WalkerSTL0.8± 1.4high
Earned runs
- Quinn MathewsSTL3.3± 4.3low
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL3.0± 2.5high
- Braxton AshcraftPIT2.7± 2.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
PIT
league avg
STL
.733
OPS
◀
.719
.700
.329
OBP
◀
.318
.317
4.87
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.44
4.22
Team ERA
4.16
4.24
1.32
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.34
9.3
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.8
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 29PIT
Pirates
70-78
vs58.4%STL
STL★
Cardinals
79-73
PIT 41.6%win prob58.4% STL
STL 1494 · PIT 1486Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
