Recent form
4-6
CHC +1.2 vs CIN -1.5 margin
CHC brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
CIN
CIN
63-71
PregameFri, 2:20 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV
CHC
CHC
76-58
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketWrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Rhett Lowder
SP · #25
5-8
W-L
5.13
ERA
1.47
WHIP
83
K
107.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@ARIW(5-8)6.0 IP3 ER1 K
vsSTL-6.2 IP4 ER5 K
@CHWL(4-8)5.1 IP2 ER4 K
Home starter
David Peterson
SP · #19
7-7
W-L
5.17
ERA
1.50
WHIP
103
K
118.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@SEA-6.0 IP2 ER8 K
vsCHW-1.1 IP0 ER1 K
@WSHW(7-7)5.0 IP3 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob37% / 63%
LeanHome · 13pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesCIN wins series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CHC vs CIN.
CHC is 4-6 recently; CIN is 3-7.
63.2%
model · CHC win prob
Recent form
- CHC4–6+1.2
- CIN3–7-1.5
Situational
- CHC2d rest
- CIN2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CHC has 6 straight road games; CIN has 6.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Chase BurnsCIN6.3strikeouts · ±2.5
Chase Burns · 6.3 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.6.
- Kevin GausmanCHC5.6strikeouts · ±2.2
Kevin Gausman · 5.6 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.5.
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.6strikeouts · ±2.0
Shota Imanaga · 5.6 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.5.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
63.4%
ensemble · CHC favored
Elo Static
68.1%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
68.0%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
69.9%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.88 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHC vs CIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 113 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chase BurnsCIN6.3± 2.5high
- Kevin GausmanCHC5.6± 2.2high
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.6± 2.0high
Hits
- Sal StewartCIN1.2± 0.7high
- Alex BregmanCHC1.1± 1.2high
- Elly De La CruzCIN1.1± 1.2high
Total bases
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2.6± 3.5high
- Alex BregmanCHC1.9± 2.9high
- Ian HappCHC1.9± 2.2high
RBIs
- Ian HappCHC0.8± 1.7high
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC0.8± 1.3high
- Sal StewartCIN0.8± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Brady SingerCIN2.8± 0.9high
- Kevin GausmanCHC2.7± 1.8high
- Andrew AbbottCIN2.7± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CIN
league avg
CHC
.698
OPS
.719
▶.760
.306
OBP
.318
▶.338
4.09
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.19
4.55
Team ERA
4.16
▶4.09
1.41
WHIP
1.30
▶1.25
8.2
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.7
The One modelEdge
Fri, Aug 28CIN
Reds
72-83
vs63.2%CHC
CHC★
Cubs
89-69
CIN 36.8%win prob63.2% CHC
CHC 1560 · CIN 1453Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- DodgersTigers8/28 - 6:40 PM EDT
- MarlinsNationals8/28 - 6:45 PM EDT
- AstrosMets8/28 - 7:10 PM EDT
- RoyalsGuardians8/28 - 7:10 PM EDT
- PadresRays8/28 - 7:10 PM EDT
- Red SoxYankees8/28 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RockiesBraves8/28 - 7:15 PM EDT
- MarinersBlue Jays8/28 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RangersBrewers8/28 - 7:40 PM EDT
- White SoxTwins8/28 - 8:10 PM EDT
- PiratesCardinals8/28 - 8:15 PM EDT
- PhilliesAngels8/28 - 9:38 PM EDT
- OriolesAthletics8/28 - 9:40 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksGiants8/28 - 10:15 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
