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Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
53,178 attended
FINAL+24CLE
NE
1-1-1
1337
CLE
1-2
NFL · Drive chart
20 drives · 5 TD · 5 FG · 2 INT · 6 PuntTDCLE7p · 67y TDNE6p · 76y TDCLE7p · 74y PuntNE3p · 1y FGCLE5p · 56y INTNE1p FGCLE4p · 2y FGNE14p · 62y TDCLE8p · 63y FGNE10p · 54y ½CLE1p · 3y PuntNE6p · 11y PuntCLE3p · 9y PuntNE3p · 1y TDCLE15p · 98y PuntNE5p · 21y PuntCLE9p · 35y INTNE6p · 33y FGCLE4p · 7y EndNE6p · 43y
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Team rate stats · season-to-date
Tale of the tape
nflverse · weekly aggregates
NE
league avg
CLE
29.6
Pts / game
◀
23.5
14.8
391
Yds / game
◀
342
282
262
Pass yds / G
◀
225
185
129
Rush yds / G
◀
117
97
0.8
TO / G
◀
0.9
1.2
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
