Recent form
7-3
WSH +3.8 vs PHX -4.8 margin
WSH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Washington Mystics at Phoenix Mercury
WSH
WSH
23-15
PregameThu, 10:00 PM EDTPrime Video
PHX
PHX
13-25
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
ashington Mystics visit Phoenix Mercury Thursday at 8/27 - 10:00 PM EDT. WSH is 6-3 in their last 9.
Vegas opened WSH as a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 166.5. PHX's moneyline implies a 42% break-even, WSH the inverse.
For bettors: the WSH side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 166.5 total reads near the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
45
FG %
44
Season series
WSH leads series 2-0
Aug 9PHX75@WSH95
PHX75@WSH95Aug 26WSH94@PHX84
WSH94@PHX84Aug 28WSH@PHXtoday
WSH@PHXtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
WSH -3.5
Between — and 5
1.0pt· 6.3h
Total
166.5
Standard · +1.5 vs avg
2.0pt· 6.3h
Moneyline
WSH-16262%PHX+13642%12· 6.3h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
+1.0 since open
Total
166.5
0.0 since open
Scouting report
WSH @ PHX
StorylinePHX lost 3 in a row.
Rest going in
WSHStandard
2 days
last game Aug 25
PHXStandard
2 days
last game Aug 25
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
WSH -3.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
166.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
WSH -162
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
WSHmetricPHX
23-15
Record
13-25
#4
Conf rank
#6
-0.3
Pt diff
-3.9
W2
Streak
L3
7-3
Last 10
3-7
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
WSH -3.5·O/U 166.5·WSH -162/PHX +136
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
PHX vs WSH.
PHX has dropped 3 straight; WSH is 7-3 over its last 10.
40.1%
model · PHX win prob
Recent form
- PHX3–7-4.8
- WSH7–3+3.8
Situational
- PHX2d rest
- WSH2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PHX has 0 straight road games; WSH has 2.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Kahleah CopperPHX21.5points · ±7.8
Kahleah Copper · 21.5 pts · last-10 22.2 vs season 20.4.
- Shakira AustinWSH19.3points · ±6.3
Shakira Austin · 19.3 pts · last-10 20.8 vs season 16.9.
- Sonia CitronWSH16.0points · ±3.5
Sonia Citron · 16 pts · last-10 15.9 vs season 16.3.
Head-to-head · 2-2 · last 4
PHX is 2-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-07-27PHX @ WSH88–72
- 2025-09-04PHX @ WSH75–69
- 2026-08-09PHX @ WSH75–95
- 2026-08-25WSH @ PHX94–84
Line move
open +124→+136toward WSH
The market has moved 2.3pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
40.7%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
43.0%
P(PHX win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
41.4%
P(PHX win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
45.4%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.63 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
89% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
WSH
no live price
PHX
no live price
| Book | WSH | PHX | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -162 | +136 | +0.6 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
PHX vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 90 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX21.5± 7.8high
- Shakira AustinWSH19.3± 6.3high
- Kelsey PlumPHX19.1± 12.3medium
Rebounds
- Shakira AustinWSH9.5± 2.1high
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.4± 2.7high
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.6± 3.8high
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.3± 2.1high
- Sonia CitronWSH5.0± 2.4high
- Kelsey PlumPHX4.9± 3.7medium
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.4± 1.4high
- Lauren BettsWSH1.0± 1.2high
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2medium
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.4± 1.4high
- Kelsey PlumPHX1.0± 1.6medium
- Sonia CitronWSH1.0± 0.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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