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Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers

MIL
MIL

MIL

75-48

PregameSun, 4:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
LAD
LAD

LAD

74-49

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

5-5

LAD -0.2 vs MIL -0.7 margin

LAD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
⤓

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

›

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Logan Henderson

Logan Henderson

SP · #43

6-2

W-L

2.88

ERA

0.91

WHIP

69

K

56.1

IP

Last 3 starts

@SDL(6-2)6.1 IP3 ER7 K
vsPITW(6-1)6.0 IP2 ER8 K
@SFW(5-1)5.2 IP0 ER7 K

Home starter

Tarik Skubal

Tarik Skubal

SP · #29

7-6

W-L

2.93

ERA

0.93

WHIP

128

K

107.2

IP

Last 3 starts

vsKC-5.0 IP3 ER6 K
@CHCL(7-6)6.0 IP2 ER6 K
vsBAL-6.2 IP3 ER6 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob42% / 58%
LeanHome · 8pp
ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypeCurrent Series

Scouting report · pre-game

LAD vs MIL.

LAD is 5-5 recently; MIL is 5-5.

57.9%

model · LAD win prob

Recent form

  • LAD5–5-0.2
  • MIL5–5-0.7

Situational

  • LAD2d rest
  • MIL2d rest
  • +0.0d differential

Rest is even. LAD has 0 straight road games; MIL has 5.

Model angle

No actionable edge surfaced.

Players to watch

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.5strikeouts · ±2.6

    Jacob Misiorowski · 9.5 K · last-10 9.6 vs season 9.3.

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9strikeouts · ±2.0

    Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 5.9 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 6.

  • Justin WrobleskiLAD
    5.2strikeouts · ±3.0

    Justin Wrobleski · 5.2 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 4.7.

Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2

LAD is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

  • 2026-08-13MIL @ LAD5–4
  • 2026-08-14MIL @ LAD1–3

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.9%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    57.5%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.4%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.5%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAD vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 103 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.5± 2.6high
  • Tarik SkubalLAD
    7.6± 2.5medium
  • Logan HendersonMIL
    6.5± 2.3low

Hits

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Jackson ChourioMIL
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.2± 2.8high
  • Jackson ChourioMIL
    2.1± 2.3high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    1.8± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Max MuncyLAD
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Brice TurangMIL
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1high
  • Robert GasserMIL
    2.7± 3.0low
  • Kris BubicLAD
    2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

MIL

league avg

LAD

LAD

.729

OPS

.719

▶

.766

.336

OBP

.318

.337

4.86

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.98

3.53

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.69

1.16

WHIP

1.30

1.16

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.1

The One modelLean
Sun, Aug 16
MIL

MIL

Brewers

79-62

vs57.8%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

89-63

LAD
MIL 42.2%win prob57.8% LAD
LAD 1553 · MIL 1524Box score→

Team pages

Milwaukee BrewersatLos Angeles Dodgers

Elsewhere in the MLB

  • Orioles@Rays8/16 - 12:15 PM EDT
  • Diamondbacks@Braves8/16 - 1:35 PM EDT
  • Red Sox@Pirates8/16 - 1:35 PM EDT
  • Yankees@Blue Jays8/16 - 1:37 PM EDT
  • White Sox@Tigers8/16 - 1:40 PM EDT
  • Marlins@Reds8/16 - 1:40 PM EDT
  • Padres@Guardians8/16 - 1:40 PM EDT
  • Nationals@Mets8/16 - 1:40 PM EDT
  • Phillies@Twins8/16 - 2:10 PM EDT
  • Cardinals@Cubs8/16 - 3:00 PM EDT
  • Rockies@Giants8/16 - 4:05 PM EDT
  • Rangers@Athletics8/16 - 4:05 PM EDT
  • Royals@Angels8/16 - 4:07 PM EDT
  • Mariners@Astros8/16 - 7:20 PM EDT

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 59-36
63%Last 30 · 293-174
Receipts →
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Vargas (CHW): 4 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over DET — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Burns (CIN): 7.0 IP · 8 K in a win over MIA
TRANSACTION · MLBRockies: Sent RHP Jaden Hill on a rehab assignment to Albuquerque (PCL) (Aug 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBB. Pfaadt (ARI): 7.0 IP · 7 K in a win over ATL
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Caglianone (KC): 3 H · 1 HR · 5 RBI in a win over LAA
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Recalled INF/OF Cody Freeman from Round Rock (PCL) (Aug 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 29 PTS · 3 REB · 10 AST in a win over DAL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAP. Bueckers (DAL): 29 PTS · 6 REB · 6 AST against IND
TRANSACTION · MLBNationals: Sent LHP DJ Herz on a rehab assignment to Harrisburg (EL) (Aug 14)
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Christyn Williams to a player development contract (Aug 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLFalcons: Waived OT Jack Nelson with an injury settlement (Aug 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed DB Wande Owens (Aug 14)
TONIGHT · WNBANY @ CON, 8/15 - 1:00 PM EDT — NY -7.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Vargas (CHW): 4 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over DET — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Burns (CIN): 7.0 IP · 8 K in a win over MIA
TRANSACTION · MLBRockies: Sent RHP Jaden Hill on a rehab assignment to Albuquerque (PCL) (Aug 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBB. Pfaadt (ARI): 7.0 IP · 7 K in a win over ATL
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Caglianone (KC): 3 H · 1 HR · 5 RBI in a win over LAA
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Recalled INF/OF Cody Freeman from Round Rock (PCL) (Aug 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 29 PTS · 3 REB · 10 AST in a win over DAL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAP. Bueckers (DAL): 29 PTS · 6 REB · 6 AST against IND
TRANSACTION · MLBNationals: Sent LHP DJ Herz on a rehab assignment to Harrisburg (EL) (Aug 14)
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Christyn Williams to a player development contract (Aug 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLFalcons: Waived OT Jack Nelson with an injury settlement (Aug 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed DB Wande Owens (Aug 14)
TONIGHT · WNBANY @ CON, 8/15 - 1:00 PM EDT — NY -7.5
MLB·Sun, Aug 16·8/16 - 4:10 PM EDT/Seriestied 1-1

Preview · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers visit Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday at 8/16 - 4:10 PM EDT.

The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers · pregame

MLB · Box score

8/16 - 4:10 PM EDT

No player stats available yet.

No player stats available yet.

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

598

Runs

613

1039

Hits

1075

54

Errors

49

1629

TB

1774

111

HR

158

516

BB

458

1028

K

964

922

LOB

852

Current series

Series tied 1-1

Aug 14MILMIL5@LADLAD4
Aug 15MILMIL1@LADLAD3
Aug 15MILMIL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 16MILMIL@LADLADtoday

Season series

LAD lead series 3-2

May 22LADLAD1@MILMIL5
May 23LADLAD11@MILMIL3
May 24LADLAD5@MILMIL1
Aug 14MILMIL5@LADLAD4
Aug 15MILMIL1@LADLAD3
Aug 15MILMIL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 16MILMIL@LADLADtoday

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
MILMILSP
L. Henderson

L. Henderson

#43 · 6-2

ERA

2.88

K

69

SV

—

Last 3 starts

8/11@SDSD6.1 IP · 3 ER · 7 KL(6-2)
8/4vsPITPIT6.0 IP · 2 ER · 8 KW(6-1)
7/29@SFSF5.2 IP · 0 ER · 7 KW(5-1)
VS
LADLADSP
T. Skubal

T. Skubal

#29 · 7-6

ERA

2.93

K

128

SV

—

Last 3 starts

8/11vsKCKC5.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 K-
8/5@CHCCHC6.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 KL(7-6)
7/29vsBALBAL6.2 IP · 3 ER · 6 K-

Scouting report

MIL @ LAD

8/16 - 4:10 PM EDT

Rest going in

MILStandard

1 day

last game Aug 14

LADStandard

1 day

last game Aug 14

Tale of the tape

MILmetricLAD

75-48

Record

74-49

#1

Conf rank

#2

+1.1

Pt diff

+1.2

L1

Streak

W1

5-5

Last 10

5-5

Bullpen used yesterday

MIL

1.7 bullpen IP

  • G. Anderson0.2 IP9 P
  • B. Wilson1.0 IP15 P

L 3-1 · Aug 14

LAD

3.0 bullpen IP · heavy

  • E. Phillips1.0 IP18 P
  • T. Scott1.0 IP19 P
  • E. Diaz1.0 IP26 P

W 3-1 · Aug 14

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.