Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 16, 2026

COL

49-73

PregameSun, 4:05 PM EDTMLB.TV

50-72

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

94 total idx

Oracle Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

3-7

SF -1.4 vs COL -1.5 margin

SF brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Gabriel Hughes

SP · #43

0-4

W-L

5.61

ERA

1.28

WHIP

33.2

Last 3 starts

@ARIL(0-4)4.0 IP7 ER3 K

vsTB-5.1 IP5 ER7 K

@SDL(0-3)5.0 IP3 ER2 K

Home starter

Blade Tidwell

RP · #46

0-0

W-L

2.78

ERA

1.10

WHIP

22.2

Last 3 starts

vsHOU-5.2 IP1 ER6 K

@TEX-5.0 IP2 ER3 K

@PHI-2.0 IP2 ER2 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob43% / 57%

LeanHome · 7pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesCOL leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Scouting report · pre-game

SF vs COL.

SF is 3-7 recently; COL is 4-6.

57.0%

model · SF win prob

Recent form

SF3–7-1.4
COL4–6-1.5

Situational

SF2d rest
COL2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. SF has 0 straight road games; COL has 7.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.5 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.5pp

Players to watch

Landen RouppSF
4.9strikeouts · ±2.1
Landen Roupp · 4.9 K · last-10 4.6 vs season 5.3.
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8strikeouts · ±2.6
Kyle Freeland · 4.8 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 4.4.
Logan WebbSF
4.7strikeouts · ±2.1
Logan Webb · 4.7 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.9.

Head-to-head · 3-2 · last 5

SF is 3-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-07-09COL @ SF2–8
2026-07-10COL @ SF4–3
2026-07-11COL @ SF2–4
2026-07-12COL @ SF1–3
2026-08-14COL @ SF5–2

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.5%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
56.4%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.8%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.9%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.04 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

116

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
4.9± 2.1high
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8± 2.6high
Logan WebbSF
4.7± 2.1high

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.4± 1.4high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.0high
Willi CastroCOL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.4± 2.9high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.0± 3.3high
Willi CastroCOL
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.3high
Brett SullivanCOL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.7± 2.1high
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.2± 2.0high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.2± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

.744

OPS

◀

.719

.712

.323

OBP

◀

.318

.305

4.77

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.06

5.44

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.32

1.51

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.35

7.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.7

The One modelLean

Sun, Aug 16

COL

Rockies

55-87

vs57.0%SF

SF★

Giants

69-83

COL 43.0%win prob57.0% SF

SF 1450 · COL 1430Box score→

Team pages

Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

The matchup, end-to-end.

SF vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.

SF vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league