Park factor
103 total idx
Great American Ball Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds
MIA
MIA
62-61
PregameSun, 1:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
CIN
CIN
59-62
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketGreat American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Eury Perez
SP · #39
6-9
W-L
3.39
ERA
1.11
WHIP
128
K
116.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsPITW(6-9)7.0 IP0 ER7 K
@ATLL(5-9)5.0 IP4 ER9 K
@NYM-6.0 IP1 ER6 K
Home starter
Nick Lodolo
SP · #40
3-2
W-L
4.86
ERA
1.46
WHIP
55
K
66.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@CHW-4.0 IP4 ER5 K
vsCHC-5.0 IP2 ER4 K
vsBALW(3-2)6.0 IP1 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob49% / 51%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesCIN leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CIN vs MIA.
CIN is 6-4 recently; MIA is 4-6.
51.3%
model · CIN win prob
Recent form
- CIN6–4-1.3
- MIA4–6-0.3
Situational
- CIN2d rest
- MIA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CIN has 0 straight road games; MIA has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.3pp
Players to watch
- Chase BurnsCIN6.3strikeouts · ±2.4
Chase Burns · 6.3 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.5.
- Eury PerezMIA6.3strikeouts · ±2.9
Eury Perez · 6.3 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 6.1.
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA5.5strikeouts · ±2.0
Sandy Alcantara · 5.5 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.1.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
CIN is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-14MIA @ CIN0–1
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · CIN favored
Elo Static
49.5%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.7%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.3%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.80 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CIN vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 109 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chase BurnsCIN6.3± 2.4high
- Eury PerezMIA6.3± 2.9high
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA5.5± 2.0high
Hits
- Sal StewartCIN1.1± 0.6high
- Javier SanojaMIA1.0± 0.7high
- Otto LopezMIA1.0± 0.9high
Total bases
- Eugenio SuarezCIN2.0± 2.1high
- Sal StewartCIN2.0± 1.9high
- Griffin ConineMIA1.8± 2.8high
RBIs
- Eugenio SuarezCIN0.8± 1.3high
- Elly De La CruzCIN0.7± 0.9high
- Tyler StephensonCIN0.7± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Janson JunkMIA2.9± 3.4medium
- Rhett LowderCIN2.6± 2.5high
- Andrew AbbottCIN2.5± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIA
league avg
CIN
.726
OPS
◀
.719
.701
.324
OBP
◀
.318
.307
4.35
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.11
3.96
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.47
1.25
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.40
8.5
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.2
The One modelTossup
Sun, Aug 16MIA
Marlins
73-71
vs51.2%CIN
CIN★
Reds
68-74
MIA 48.8%win prob51.2% CIN
CIN 1471 · MIA 1499Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
