St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 16, 2026

STL

61-61

PregameSun, 3:00 PM EDTABC, MLB.TV

CHC

72-51

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

8-2

CHC +1.7 vs STL +1.2 margin

CHC brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Hunter Dobbins

SP · #40

2-3

W-L

3.40

ERA

1.31

WHIP

45.0

Last 3 starts

vsPHIL(2-3)5.0 IP1 ER6 K

@NYYL(2-2)6.1 IP2 ER4 K

vsCHC-5.1 IP4 ER4 K

Home starter

Edward Cabrera

SP · #30

5-4

W-L

5.10

ERA

1.40

WHIP

72.1

Last 3 starts

@NYMW(5-4)5.0 IP2 ER4 K

vsCOLL(4-4)4.1 IP5 ER3 K

@COLW(4-3)5.1 IP2 ER5 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob36% / 64%

LeanHome · 14pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesCHC lead series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Scouting report · pre-game

CHC vs STL.

CHC is 8-2 recently; STL is 6-4.

63.8%

model · CHC win prob

Recent form

CHC8–2+1.7
STL6–4+1.2

Situational

CHC2d rest
STL2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. CHC has 0 straight road games; STL has 1.

Model angle

Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.1pp

Players to watch

Kevin GausmanCHC
5.3strikeouts · ±2.4
Kevin Gausman · 5.3 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.5.
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.1strikeouts · ±1.5
Shota Imanaga · 5.1 K · last-10 4.9 vs season 5.4.
Kyle LeahySTL
5.0strikeouts · ±2.3
Kyle Leahy · 5 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 4.6.

Head-to-head · 4-1 · last 5

CHC is 4-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-07-27CHC @ STL7–3
2026-07-28CHC @ STL10–2
2026-07-29CHC @ STL2–3
2026-07-30CHC @ STL4–2
2026-08-14STL @ CHC0–3

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
64.8%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.8%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.8%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kevin GausmanCHC
5.3± 2.4high
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.1± 1.4high
Kyle LeahySTL
5.0± 2.3high

Hits

Alex BregmanCHC
1.2± 1.1high
Ivan HerreraSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Alex BregmanCHC
2.5± 3.6high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.3± 2.9high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.3± 3.6high

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 2.1high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.0± 2.1high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanCHC
3.3± 2.1high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.2high
David PetersonCHC
2.7± 2.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

CHC

.692

OPS

.719

▶

.756

.315

OBP

.318

▶

.338

4.34

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.18

4.07

Team ERA

4.17

4.07

1.34

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.25

7.7

K / 9

8.5

7.7

The One modelEdge

Sun, Aug 16

STL

Cardinals

73-66

vs63.8%CHC

CHC★

Cubs

85-62

STL 36.2%win prob63.8% CHC

CHC 1580 · STL 1498Box score→

Team pages

St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs

The matchup, end-to-end.

CHC vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

CHC vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.