Recent form
7-3
SD +0.9 vs CLE -0.7 margin
SD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians
SD
SD
66-58
PregameSun, 1:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
CLE
CLE
60-64
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketProgressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
Line movement
200 snapshots
CLE spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.0 · +0.5
CLE no-vig %
49.0%
open 49.1% · -0.1
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Casey Mize
SP · #32
4-7
W-L
3.38
ERA
1.09
WHIP
92
K
96.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIL-6.0 IP2 ER6 K
@ARIL(4-7)3.1 IP8 ER1 K
vsKC-6.0 IP1 ER3 K
Home starter
Tanner Bibee
SP · #28
4-12
W-L
3.99
ERA
1.13
WHIP
114
K
144.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@DETL(4-12)6.1 IP5 ER4 K
vsNYM-5.2 IP3 ER10 K
vsARIL(4-11)7.1 IP2 ER3 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money-108 / +101
Model edge
Win prob47% / 54%
LeanHome · 4pp
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypeCurrent Series
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Scouting report · pre-game
CLE vs SD.
CLE is 3-7 recently; SD is 7-3.
53.5%
model · CLE win prob
Recent form
- CLE3–7-0.7
- SD7–3+0.9
Situational
- CLE1d restB2B
- SD1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CLE has 0 straight road games; SD has 2.
Model angle
+4.6ppon CLE
CLE's edge is mostly model confidence plus travel burden. Venue split is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
- ▲Model confidence+1.5pp
- ▼Venue split-1.5pp
Players to watch
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.3strikeouts · ±2.6
Gavin Williams · 8.3 K · last-10 8.7 vs season 7.6.
- Joey CantilloCLE5.9strikeouts · ±2.2
Joey Cantillo · 5.9 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 5.3.
- Parker MessickCLE5.4strikeouts · ±2.9
Parker Messick · 5.4 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.7.
Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2
CLE is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-14SD @ CLE7–5
- 2026-08-15SD @ CLE1–6
Line move
open -106→-105flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
51.9%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.2%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.1%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.38 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CLE vs SD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 120 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.3± 2.6high
- Joey CantilloCLE5.9± 2.2high
- Parker MessickCLE5.4± 2.9high
Hits
- Chase DeLauterCLE1.3± 1.0high
- Angel MartinezCLE1.2± 0.8high
- Steven KwanCLE1.2± 0.8high
Total bases
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2.2± 2.3high
- Angel MartinezCLE2.0± 1.8high
- Jackson MerrillSD2.0± 1.8high
RBIs
- Angel MartinezCLE0.8± 1.9high
- Nathaniel LoweCLE0.8± 1.1high
- Jackson MerrillSD0.8± 0.7high
Earned runs
- Walker BuehlerSD2.9± 2.8high
- Tanner BibeeCLE2.6± 1.8high
- Gavin WilliamsCLE2.4± 1.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SD
league avg
CLE
.701
OPS
◀
.719
.684
.314
OBP
.318
.313
4.27
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.98
4.11
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.84
1.32
WHIP
1.30
▶1.27
8.3
K / 9
8.5
▶9.4
The One modelTossup
Sun, Aug 16SD
Padres
75-70
vs53.5%CLE
CLE★
Guardians
80-70
SD 46.5%win prob53.5% CLE
CLE 1518 · SD 1529Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- OriolesRays8/16 - 12:15 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksBraves8/16 - 1:35 PM EDT
- Red SoxPirates8/16 - 1:35 PM EDT
- YankeesBlue Jays8/16 - 1:37 PM EDT
- White SoxTigers8/16 - 1:40 PM EDT
- MarlinsReds8/16 - 1:40 PM EDT
- NationalsMets8/16 - 1:40 PM EDT
- PhilliesTwins8/16 - 2:10 PM EDT
- CardinalsCubs8/16 - 3:00 PM EDT
- RockiesGiants8/16 - 4:05 PM EDT
- RangersAthletics8/16 - 4:05 PM EDT
- RoyalsAngels8/16 - 4:07 PM EDT
- BrewersDodgers8/16 - 4:10 PM EDT
- MarinersAstros8/16 - 7:20 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
