Washington Nationals vs New York Mets: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 16, 2026

WSH

60-64

PregameSun, 1:40 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV

NYM

54-69

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Citi Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

7-3

NYM +1.4 vs WSH +0.7 margin

NYM brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Citi Field · Queens, New York

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Jake Irvin

SP · #27

2-6

W-L

5.79

ERA

1.32

WHIP

65.1

Last 3 starts

vsCHCL(2-6)3.1 IP5 ER4 K

@PHI-5.1 IP2 ER3 K

@ATLL(2-5)5.0 IP5 ER1 K

Home starter

Christian Scott

SP · #45

3-3

W-L

3.45

ERA

1.30

WHIP

78.1

Last 3 starts

@ATL-4.0 IP4 ER6 K

@CLE-5.0 IP3 ER7 K

vsATLL(3-3)6.0 IP1 ER7 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob46% / 54%

LeanHome · 4pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesNYM lead series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Scouting report · pre-game

NYM vs WSH.

NYM is 7-3 recently; WSH is 5-5.

54.4%

model · NYM win prob

Recent form

NYM7–3+1.4
WSH5–5+0.7

Situational

NYM2d rest
WSH2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. NYM has 0 straight road games; WSH has 1.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp

Players to watch

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.9strikeouts · ±2.1
Nolan McLean · 6.9 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 6.6.
Cade CavalliWSH
6.5strikeouts · ±3.4
Cade Cavalli · 6.5 K · last-10 6.9 vs season 5.8.
Sean ManaeaNYM
5.0strikeouts · ±2.4
Sean Manaea · 5 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 4.2.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

NYM is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-08-14WSH @ NYM1–4

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.1%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
53.2%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.0%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.3%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.9± 2.1high
Cade CavalliWSH
6.5± 3.4high
Christian ScottNYM
5.9± 1.4medium

Hits

Carson BengeNYM
1.3± 1.0high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.2± 1.5high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Abimelec OrtizWSH
2.1± 2.9low
Carson BengeNYM
2.0± 1.7high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

Daylen LileWSH
0.9± 1.2high
Abimelec OrtizWSH
0.8± 1.4low
Bo BichetteNYM
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Jake IrvinWSH
2.9± 2.6low
Kodai SengaNYM
2.2± 2.6medium
Sean ManaeaNYM
2.1± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

NYM

.766

OPS

◀

.719

.694

.328

OBP

◀

.318

.306

5.35

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.18

4.72

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.10

1.38

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.31

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

The One modelLean

Sun, Aug 16

WSH

Nationals

71-71

vs54.4%NYM

NYM★

Mets

64-81

WSH 45.6%win prob54.4% NYM

NYM 1485 · WSH 1486Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Washington Nationals at New York Mets

The matchup, end-to-end.

NYM vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league