Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 16, 2026

SEA

40-39

PregameSun, 7:20 PM EDT

HOU

37-42

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSEA leads series 7-1

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
8.0± 1.4low
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 3.6medium
Bryce MillerSEA
6.1± 2.8low

Hits

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.4± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.1± 1.1high
Raynel DelgadoHOU
1.0± 1.4low

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.3± 2.5high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.9high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
1.8± 2.5high

RBIs

Raynel DelgadoHOU
0.7± 1.6low
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 1.9high
Jose AltuveHOU
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.2± 2.5medium
Bryan WooSEA
2.9± 3.5medium
George KirbySEA
2.9± 1.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

HOU

.700

OPS

.719

▶

.730

.313

OBP

.319

▶

.317

4.13

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.51

3.62

Team ERA

◀

4.19

4.84

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.9

K / 9

8.5

8.8

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league