Recent form
6-4
ATL +1.4 vs ARI +0.7 margin
ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves
ARI
ARI
65-58
PregameSun, 1:35 PM EDTMLB.TV
ATL
ATL
73-49
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTruist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Michael Soroka
SP · #34
8-3
W-L
2.92
ERA
1.10
WHIP
83
K
86.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCOL-4.1 IP0 ER4 K
vsMIN-1.0 IP0 ER0 K
@CIN-7.0 IP1 ER7 K
Home starter
Bryce Elder
SP · #55
8-7
W-L
4.03
ERA
1.25
WHIP
108
K
131.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsNYML(8-7)5.0 IP7 ER4 K
vsMIAW(8-6)7.0 IP1 ER3 K
vsWSHW(7-6)6.0 IP1 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesARI leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ATL vs ARI.
ATL is 6-4 recently; ARI is 5-5.
59.0%
model · ATL win prob
Recent form
- ATL6–4+1.4
- ARI5–5+0.7
Situational
- ATL2d rest
- ARI2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATL has 0 straight road games; ARI has 1.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Chris SaleATL7.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Chris Sale · 7.1 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 7.2.
- Tyler MahleATL5.2strikeouts · ±2.4
Tyler Mahle · 5.2 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.3.
- Bryce ElderATL4.3strikeouts · ±1.7
Bryce Elder · 4.3 K · last-10 4.1 vs season 4.7.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
ATL is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-14ARI @ ATL2–0
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.6%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
58.9%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.6%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.6%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.55 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs ARI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 112 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chris SaleATL7.1± 2.4high
- Tyler MahleATL5.2± 2.4high
- Michael SorokaARI4.9± 2.8medium
Hits
- James McCannARI1.3± 1.4high
- Gabriel MorenoARI1.2± 1.0high
- Geraldo PerdomoARI1.1± 0.8high
Total bases
- Matt OlsonATL2.5± 2.3high
- James McCannARI2.0± 2.1high
- Corbin CarrollARI1.9± 2.3high
RBIs
- James McCannARI0.9± 1.0high
- Gabriel MorenoARI0.6± 0.7high
- Ildemaro VargasARI0.6± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Bryce ElderATL3.2± 2.7high
- Merrill KellyARI2.9± 2.1high
- Zack LittellARI2.4± 2.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ARI
league avg
ATL
.713
OPS
.719
▶.731
.316
OBP
.318
.313
4.50
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.84
4.08
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.59
1.28
WHIP
1.30
▶1.24
6.9
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
The One modelEdge
Sun, Aug 16ARI
Diamondbacks
69-74
vs59.0%ATL
ATL★
Braves
87-60
ARI 41.0%win prob59.0% ATL
ATL 1544 · ARI 1506Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
