Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at CON?

The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

21-14

PregameSat, 1:00 PM EDTNBC Sports BO, WNBA League Pass, Fox 5 New York

CON

8-24

ATS/NY -7.5O/U/173.5ML/NY-325

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Recent form

8-2

NY +5.1 vs CON -10.9 margin

NY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Model rank

+232.4

CON Elo vs NY Elo

NY owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing CON uphill early today again.

WNBASat, Aug 158/15 - 1:00 PM EDTSeriesNY leads series 2-0VegasNY -7.5

Preview · WNBA

ew York Liberty visit Connecticut Sun Saturday at 8/15 - 1:00 PM EDT. NY is rolling — 6-2 in their last 8.

Vegas opened NY as a 7.5-point favorite with the total at 173.5. CON's moneyline implies a 28% break-even, NY the inverse.

For bettors: the NY side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 173.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

Away

Stat

CON

Home

FG %

Season series

NY leads series 2-0

May 8

CON75@

NY106

Jun 8

NY89@

CON80

Aug 15

NY@

CONtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

173.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-32576%

CON+26028%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -7.5↗SpreadBet NY -7.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

173.5

-3.0 since open

Scouting report

NY @ CON

8/15 - 1:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

NYStandard

1 day

last game Aug 13

CONStandard

1 day

last game Aug 13

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

NY -7.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

173.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

NY -325

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

NYmetricCON

21-14

Record

8-24

Conf rank

+3.2

Pt diff

-8.1

Streak

8-2

Last 10

3-7

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

NY -7.5·O/U 173.5·NY -325/CON +260

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

CON vs NY.

CON is 3-7 recently; NY is 8-2.

19.3%

model · CON win prob

Recent form

CON3–7-10.9
NY8–2+5.1

Situational

CON2d rest
NY2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. CON has 0 straight road games; NY has 0.

Model angle

+7.3ppon NY

NY's edge is mostly recent form plus model confidence. The signals lean the same way.

▲Recent form+3.2pp
▲Model confidence+2.4pp
▲Head to head+1.6pp

Players to watch

Breanna StewartNY
19.5points · ±7.7
Breanna Stewart · 19.5 pts · last-10 19.1 vs season 20.1.
Sabrina IonescuNY
17.9points · ±7.1
Sabrina Ionescu · 17.9 pts · last-10 19.6 vs season 15.4.
Jonquel JonesNY
14.3points · ±4.4
Jonquel Jones · 14.3 pts · last-10 14.3 vs season 14.3.

Head-to-head · 1-4 · last 5

CON is 1-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-08-01NY @ CON62–78
2025-08-03NY @ CON87–78
2025-08-25CON @ NY79–81
2026-05-08CON @ NY75–106
2026-06-08NY @ CON89–80

Line move

open +270→+260toward CON

The market has moved 0.8pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

16.7%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
28.2%
P(CON win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
23.7%
P(CON win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
23.2%
P(CON win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like NY.

NY's edge is mostly recent form plus model confidence. The signals lean the same way.

+7.3

pp edge · NY

+0.73

CLV pp

5.0u · large

on NY

88.0%

±9.3pp band

5u large — +11.5pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+14.6pp

+7.3pp post-cal

Kelly

49.0%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.31

+11.5pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 7.3pp · NY over CON

▲
Recent form70% conf
NY is 4-1 over its last 5; CON is 1-4.
+3.2pp
▲
Model confidence82% conf
NY grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+2.4pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
NY has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+1.6pp

Open price

+270

Close price

+260

Open no-vig

25.9%

Close no-vig

26.6%

Market came to the model

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at CON?: The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.3pp

best edge · NY · DraftKings

★ best

-325DraftKings

edge +7.3pp · implied 73.4%

CON

no live price

Book	NY	CON	Best edge
DraftKings	-325★	+260	+7.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CON vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
19.5± 7.7high
Sabrina IonescuNY
17.9± 7.1high
Jonquel JonesNY
14.3± 4.4high

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.8± 4.0high
Breanna StewartNY
8.2± 3.0high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.5± 3.6high

Assists

Sabrina IonescuNY
4.7± 2.3high
Leila LacanCON
4.3± 1.6high
Charlisse Leger-WalkerCON
3.9± 2.5high

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 0.9high
Breanna StewartNY
1.4± 1.1high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.1± 1.0high

Steals

Leila LacanCON
1.5± 1.3high
Leonie FiebichNY
1.2± 1.1medium
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.1± 1.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

New York LibertyConnecticut Sun

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

New York Liberty at Connecticut Sun

CON vs NY.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like NY.

Where to bet this game.

CON vs NY.