Recent form
5-5
PHI 0.0 vs MIN -0.9 margin
PHI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins
PHI
PHI
65-58
PregameSun, 2:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
MIN
MIN
60-63
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTarget Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Andrew Painter
SP · #24
2-8
W-L
6.27
ERA
1.53
WHIP
69
K
80.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@STLW(2-8)5.1 IP2 ER6 K
vsWSH-4.0 IP1 ER4 K
@BAL-6.0 IP2 ER6 K
Home starter
Dean Kremer
SP · #13
2-4
W-L
5.25
ERA
1.17
WHIP
47
K
48.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsBALW(2-4)7.0 IP1 ER7 K
@KC-5.0 IP1 ER2 K
@DETL(1-4)4.0 IP8 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob46% / 54%
LeanHome · 4pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesPHI leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
MIN vs PHI.
MIN is 4-6 recently; PHI is 5-5.
54.2%
model · MIN win prob
Recent form
- MIN4–6-0.9
- PHI5–5+0.0
Situational
- MIN3d rest
- PHI3d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIN has 0 straight road games; PHI has 4.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.6strikeouts · ±3.6
Jesus Luzardo · 7.6 K · last-10 8 vs season 7.1.
- Zack WheelerPHI7.2strikeouts · ±3.2
Zack Wheeler · 7.2 K · last-10 7.5 vs season 6.9.
- Taj BradleyMIN6.5strikeouts · ±3.0
Taj Bradley · 6.5 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.3.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
MIN is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-13PHI @ MIN7–1
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
54.5%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
52.9%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.1%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.8%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.59 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs PHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 112 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.6± 3.6high
- Zack WheelerPHI7.2± 3.2high
- Taj BradleyMIN6.5± 3.0high
Hits
- Royce LewisMIN1.3± 1.2high
- Josh BellMIN1.2± 1.4high
- Bryson StottPHI1.2± 0.7high
Total bases
- Kyle SchwarberPHI2.3± 3.1high
- Royce LewisMIN2.1± 1.7high
- Josh BellMIN1.9± 2.6high
RBIs
- Josh BellMIN0.8± 1.2high
- Kyle SchwarberPHI0.8± 1.4high
- Royce LewisMIN0.6± 0.7high
Earned runs
- Zebby MatthewsMIN3.3± 2.2medium
- Andrew PainterPHI3.2± 2.3medium
- Dean KremerMIN3.1± 3.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
PHI
league avg
MIN
.709
OPS
.719
▶.725
.309
OBP
.318
▶.319
4.41
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.65
4.18
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.62
1.30
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.38
10.0
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.4
The One modelLean
Sun, Aug 16PHI
Phillies
83-72
vs54.1%MIN
MIN★
Twins
82-69
PHI 45.9%win prob54.1% MIN
MIN 1514 · PHI 1518Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- OriolesRays8/16 - 12:15 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksBraves8/16 - 1:35 PM EDT
- Red SoxPirates8/16 - 1:35 PM EDT
- YankeesBlue Jays8/16 - 1:37 PM EDT
- White SoxTigers8/16 - 1:40 PM EDT
- MarlinsReds8/16 - 1:40 PM EDT
- PadresGuardians8/16 - 1:40 PM EDT
- NationalsMets8/16 - 1:40 PM EDT
- CardinalsCubs8/16 - 3:00 PM EDT
- RockiesGiants8/16 - 4:05 PM EDT
- RangersAthletics8/16 - 4:05 PM EDT
- RoyalsAngels8/16 - 4:07 PM EDT
- BrewersDodgers8/16 - 4:10 PM EDT
- MarinersAstros8/16 - 7:20 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
