New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 16, 2026

NYY

46-30

PregameSun, 1:37 PM EDT

TOR

38-39

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesNYY win series 3-1

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4± 3.0low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.8± 3.2medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.2± 3.6low

Hits

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.3± 0.8high
Cody BellingerNYY
1.1± 1.2high
Anthony VolpeNYY
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.4± 1.8high
Ben RiceNYY
2.0± 2.0high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 1.1high
Jose CaballeroNYY
0.8± 1.1high
Ben RiceNYY
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
2.8± 2.7medium
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
2.8± 3.3low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

TOR

.771

OPS

◀

.719

.702

.332

OBP

◀

.319

.311

5.12

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.10

3.35

Team ERA

◀

4.19

4.13

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

8.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league