New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 16, 2026

NYY

68-54

PregameSun, 1:37 PM EDTMLB.TV

TOR

60-64

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

7-3

TOR +0.2 vs NYY 0.0 margin

TOR brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Ryan Weathers

SP · #40

5-7

W-L

3.69

ERA

1.21

WHIP

136

126.2

Last 3 starts

vsSEA-5.2 IP1 ER4 K

vsSTLW(5-7)6.0 IP0 ER6 K

@CHW-7.0 IP0 ER4 K

Home starter

Dylan Cease

SP · #84

7-5

W-L

2.40

ERA

1.07

WHIP

191

131.1

Last 3 starts

vsBOS-5.0 IP3 ER7 K

@CHC-7.0 IP0 ER10 K

vsSTL-6.0 IP1 ER7 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob59% / 41%

LeanAway · 9pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesTOR leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Scouting report · pre-game

TOR vs NYY.

TOR is 7-3 recently; NYY is 5-5.

41.0%

model · TOR win prob

Recent form

TOR7–3+0.2
NYY5–5+0.0

Situational

TOR2d rest
NYY2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. TOR has 0 straight road games; NYY has 1.

Model angle

Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.1pp

Players to watch

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4strikeouts · ±2.6
Dylan Cease · 8.4 K · last-10 8.4 vs season 8.4.
Cam SchlittlerNYY
8.1strikeouts · ±2.7
Cam Schlittler · 8.1 K · last-10 8.6 vs season 7.3.
Ryan WeathersNYY
5.7strikeouts · ±1.5
Ryan Weathers · 5.7 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 5.9.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

TOR is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-08-14NYY @ TOR1–3

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.9%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
44.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.5%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.9%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 103 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4± 2.6high
Cam SchlittlerNYY
8.1± 2.7high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.6± 2.7low

Hits

Brett BatemanTOR
1.2± 1.0low
Alejandro KirkTOR
1.1± 1.2high
George Lombard Jr.NYY
1.0± 1.0low

Total bases

Trent GrishamNYY
2.3± 3.4high
George Lombard Jr.NYY
1.8± 2.5low
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

Trent GrishamNYY
0.7± 1.3high
Andres GimenezTOR
0.6± 1.1high
Spencer JonesNYY
0.5± 1.1high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
3.0± 3.6low
Shane BieberTOR
2.9± 3.0low
Will WarrenNYY
2.8± 2.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

TOR

.719

OPS

◀

.719

.678

.309

OBP

◀

.318

.303

4.48

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

3.27

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.99

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.32

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.8

The One modelEdge

Sun, Aug 16

NYY★

Yankees

79-66

vs59.0%NYY

TOR

Blue Jays

64-93

NYY 59.0%win prob41.0% TOR

NYY 1526 · TOR 1459Box score→

Team pages

New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

The matchup, end-to-end.

TOR vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league