Recent form
5-5
DET +1.4 vs CHW +0.2 margin
DET brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
CHW
CHW
64-58
PregameSun, 1:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
DET
DET
60-63
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketComerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
Line movement
200 snapshots
DET spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
DET no-vig %
50.4%
open 50.2% · +0.2
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Sean Burke
SP · #59
7-6
W-L
2.99
ERA
1.08
WHIP
152
K
135.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCIN-7.0 IP1 ER8 K
@BOSL(7-6)4.1 IP2 ER4 K
vsNYY-6.0 IP0 ER10 K
Home starter
Drew Anderson
RP · #38
4-4
W-L
3.91
ERA
1.30
WHIP
82
K
71.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCLE-4.0 IP1 ER4 K
@SEA-3.2 IP0 ER0 K
@ATH-1.1 IP0 ER2 K
Vegas line
Spread+1.5
TotalO/U 8
Money-102 / -105
Model edge
Win prob50% / 50%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesCHW lead series 2-0
TypeCurrent Series
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Scouting report · pre-game
DET vs CHW.
DET is 5-5 recently; CHW is 5-5.
50.4%
model · DET win prob
Recent form
- DET5–5+1.4
- CHW5–5+0.2
Situational
- DET1d restB2B
- CHW1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. DET has 0 straight road games; CHW has 2.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Sean BurkeCHW7.3strikeouts · ±2.3
Sean Burke · 7.3 K · last-10 7.9 vs season 6.3.
- Luis CastilloCHW4.5strikeouts · ±2.1
Luis Castillo · 4.5 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.6.
- Framber ValdezDET4.5strikeouts · ±2.8
Framber Valdez · 4.5 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.4.
Head-to-head · 0-2 · last 2
DET is 0-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-14CHW @ DET9–5
- 2026-08-15CHW @ DET4–3
Line move
open -111→-112flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.2%
ensemble · CHW favored
Elo Static
49.2%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.1%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.6%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.45 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DET vs CHW.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
118
projections · 102 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Sean BurkeCHW7.3± 2.3high
- Troy MeltonDET5.6± 2.5low
- Luis CastilloCHW4.5± 2.1high
Hits
- Chase MeidrothCHW1.3± 0.8high
- Eduardo ValenciaDET1.2± 0.9medium
- Gleyber TorresDET1.1± 1.0high
Total bases
- Eduardo ValenciaDET2.4± 1.9medium
- Chase MeidrothCHW2.3± 2.7high
- Miguel VargasCHW2.1± 3.4high
RBIs
- Eduardo ValenciaDET1.0± 1.5medium
- Dillon DinglerDET0.8± 1.0high
- Chase MeidrothCHW0.7± 1.4high
Earned runs
- Luis CastilloCHW2.7± 1.8high
- Framber ValdezDET2.6± 2.1high
- Erick FeddeCHW2.0± 1.6high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHW
league avg
DET
.729
OPS
.719
.727
.318
OBP
.318
.319
4.81
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.55
4.10
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.52
1.29
WHIP
1.30
▶1.21
8.5
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.3
The One modelTossup
Sun, Aug 16CHW
White Sox
80-65
vs50.4%DET
DET★
Tigers
63-78
CHW 49.6%win prob50.4% DET
DET 1496 · CHW 1525Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- OriolesRays8/16 - 12:15 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksBraves8/16 - 1:35 PM EDT
- Red SoxPirates8/16 - 1:35 PM EDT
- YankeesBlue Jays8/16 - 1:37 PM EDT
- MarlinsReds8/16 - 1:40 PM EDT
- PadresGuardians8/16 - 1:40 PM EDT
- NationalsMets8/16 - 1:40 PM EDT
- PhilliesTwins8/16 - 2:10 PM EDT
- CardinalsCubs8/16 - 3:00 PM EDT
- RockiesGiants8/16 - 4:05 PM EDT
- RangersAthletics8/16 - 4:05 PM EDT
- RoyalsAngels8/16 - 4:07 PM EDT
- BrewersDodgers8/16 - 4:10 PM EDT
- MarinersAstros8/16 - 7:20 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
