Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at LV?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

MIN

28-7

PregameSat, 8:00 PM EDTCBS, Paramount+

24-11

ATS/MIN -1.5O/U/182.5ML/MIN-120

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

9-1

MIN +8.9 vs LV +0.8 margin

MIN brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

-1.0 days

LV 2 rest vs MIN 3

MIN has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+74.8

LV Elo vs MIN Elo

MIN owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing LV uphill early today again.

WNBASat, Aug 158/15 - 8:00 PM EDTSeriestied 1-1VegasMIN -1.5

Preview · WNBA

innesota Lynx visit Las Vegas Aces Saturday at 8/15 - 8:00 PM EDT. MIN arrives on a 3-game win streak (6-1 in their last 7). LV is 6-3 in their last 9.

Vegas opened MIN as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 182.5. LV's moneyline implies a 50% break-even, MIN the inverse.

For bettors: the MIN side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 182.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedSpread ↘ 1.0pt over 6.1h14m ago

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

Home

FG %

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 14

MIN97@

LV100

Aug 8

LV87@

MIN98

Aug 16

MIN@

LVtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.1h

Total

182.5

High-scoring · +17.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

MIN-12055%

LV+10050%

14· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

182.5

0.0 since open

Scouting report

MIN @ LV

8/15 - 8:00 PM EDT

StorylineMIN riding a 3-game win streak.

Rest going in

MIN +1 day

MINLong rest

3 days

last game Aug 12

LVStandard

2 days

last game Aug 13

Model edge vs market

Strong edge

Spread

Market

MIN -1.5

Model

MIN -23.0

Edge

+21.5 pts

Total

Market

182.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

MIN -120

Model

MIN

Edge

aligned

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

MINmetricLV

28-7

Record

24-11

Conf rank

+8.9

Pt diff

+3.8

Streak

9-1

Last 10

6-4

84.4

Power score

61.3

Power rank

71.6

Sched ahead

77.8

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 182.5·MIN -120/LV +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

LV vs MIN.

LV is 6-4 recently; MIN is 9-1.

40.1%

model · LV win prob

Recent form

LV6–4+0.8
MIN9–1+8.9

Situational

LV2d rest
MIN3d rest
-1.0d differential

MIN has 1 more rest day. LV has 0 straight road games; MIN has 1.

Model angle

+7.7ppon MIN

MIN's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Head to head is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+4.0pp
▲Venue split+2.4pp
▲Line steam+1.1pp

Players to watch

A'ja WilsonLV
25.3points · ±8.9
A'ja Wilson · 25.3 pts · last-10 25.3 vs season 25.3.
Jackie YoungLV
21.2points · ±8.0
Jackie Young · 21.2 pts · last-10 22.9 vs season 18.5.
Kayla McBrideMIN
19.9points · ±10.0
Kayla McBride · 19.9 pts · last-10 21 vs season 18.2.

Head-to-head · 2-4 · last 6

LV is 2-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-07-25LV @ MIN78–109
2025-08-02MIN @ LV111–58
2025-09-05MIN @ LV87–97
2026-06-13MIN @ LV97–100
2026-08-08LV @ MIN87–98

Line move

open -105→+100toward MIN

The market has moved 1.2pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.6%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
49.3%
P(LV win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
53.7%
P(LV win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
49.6%
P(LV win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like MIN.

MIN's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Head to head is the main caution flag.

+7.7

pp edge · MIN

5.0u · large

on MIN

69.5%

±9.9pp band

5u large — +15pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+17.3pp

+9.6pp post-cal

Kelly

32.9%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.83

+15.0pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 7.7pp · MIN over LV

▲
Model confidence90% conf
MIN clears the model's lock threshold.
+4.0pp
▲
Venue split68% conf
MIN's venue form is 18.9pp stronger in the recent sample.
+2.4pp
▲
Line steam67% conf
The market moved 1.1pp toward MIN since open.
+1.1pp
▲
Rest advantage65% conf
MIN has 3 days rest; LV has 2.
+0.8pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
LV has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.5pp

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at LV?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

LV vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
25.3± 8.9high
Jackie YoungLV
21.2± 8.0high
Kayla McBrideMIN
19.9± 10.0high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.3± 3.7high
Napheesa CollierMIN
7.5± 2.3low
Natasha HowardMIN
7.1± 3.1high

Assists

Olivia MilesMIN
6.4± 3.2high
Chelsea GrayLV
6.3± 1.6high
Jackie YoungLV
6.1± 3.2high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
2.0± 1.1high
Napheesa CollierMIN
1.4± 1.6low
Brianna TurnerLV
0.7± 0.6high

Steals

Napheesa CollierMIN
1.8± 1.4low
Natasha HowardMIN
1.8± 1.0high
Kayla McBrideMIN
1.7± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Minnesota LynxLas Vegas Aces

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Minnesota Lynx at Las Vegas Aces

LV vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like MIN.

LV vs MIN.