Recent form
6-4
ATL +1.4 vs ARI +0.7 margin
ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves
ARI
ARI
65-58
PregameSat, 7:15 PM EDTMLB.TV, FOX
ATL
ATL
73-49
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTruist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Line movement
200 snapshots
ATL spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 8.5 · +0.5
ATL no-vig %
56.1%
open 57.3% · -1.2
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Eduardo Rodriguez
SP · #57
11-4
W-L
2.70
ERA
1.23
WHIP
101
K
143.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsLADW(11-4)7.0 IP2 ER9 K
vsSDL(10-4)5.2 IP5 ER4 K
@PITW(10-3)8.0 IP0 ER2 K
Home starter
Grant Holmes
SP · #66
7-4
W-L
3.47
ERA
1.32
WHIP
94
K
114.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@NYY-6.0 IP0 ER2 K
vsMIAW(7-4)6.0 IP0 ER5 K
vsWSH-4.2 IP3 ER4 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9
Money+118 / -142
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesARI leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take ATL on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
ATL vs ARI.
ATL is 6-4 recently; ARI is 5-5.
59.0%
model · ATL win prob
Recent form
- ATL6–4+1.4
- ARI5–5+0.7
Situational
- ATL1d restB2B
- ARI1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATL has 0 straight road games; ARI has 1.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Chris SaleATL7.3strikeouts · ±2.5
Chris Sale · 7.3 K · last-10 7.4 vs season 7.3.
- Tyler MahleATL5.2strikeouts · ±2.4
Tyler Mahle · 5.2 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.3.
- Bryce ElderATL4.3strikeouts · ±1.7
Bryce Elder · 4.3 K · last-10 4.1 vs season 4.7.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
ATL is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-14ARI @ ATL2–0
Line move
open -150→-142toward ARI
The market has moved 1.3pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.6%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
58.9%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.4%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.37 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs ARI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 112 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chris SaleATL7.3± 2.5high
- Tyler MahleATL5.2± 2.4high
- Michael SorokaARI4.9± 2.8medium
Hits
- Geraldo PerdomoARI1.3± 1.2high
- James McCannARI1.3± 1.4high
- Gabriel MorenoARI1.2± 0.9high
Total bases
- Matt OlsonATL2.2± 2.3high
- Corbin CarrollARI2.1± 2.2high
- James McCannARI2.0± 2.1high
RBIs
- James McCannARI0.9± 1.0high
- Gabriel MorenoARI0.6± 0.7high
- Nolan ArenadoARI0.6± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Bryce ElderATL3.2± 2.7high
- Merrill KellyARI2.9± 2.1high
- Zack LittellARI2.4± 2.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ARI
league avg
ATL
.713
OPS
.719
▶.731
.316
OBP
.318
.313
4.50
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.84
4.08
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.59
1.28
WHIP
1.30
▶1.24
6.9
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 15ARI
Diamondbacks
69-74
vs59.0%ATL
ATL★
Braves
87-60
ARI 41.0%win prob59.0% ATL
ATL 1544 · ARI 1506Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- White SoxTigers8/15 - 1:10 PM EDT
- CardinalsCubs8/15 - 2:20 PM EDT
- YankeesBlue Jays8/15 - 3:07 PM EDT
- RockiesGiants8/15 - 4:05 PM EDT
- NationalsMets8/15 - 4:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRays8/15 - 6:10 PM EDT
- MarlinsReds8/15 - 6:40 PM EDT
- PadresGuardians8/15 - 7:10 PM EDT
- PhilliesTwins8/15 - 7:10 PM EDT
- MarinersAstros8/15 - 7:10 PM EDT
- Red SoxPirates8/15 - 7:15 PM EDT
- BrewersDodgers8/15 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RoyalsAngels8/15 - 9:38 PM EDT
- RangersAthletics8/15 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
