Recent form
4-6
POR -0.8 vs PHX -2.5 margin
POR brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Portland Fire at Phoenix Mercury
POR
POR
14-20
PregameSun, 7:00 PM EDTESPN, Disney+
PHX
PHX
13-22
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
ortland Fire visit Phoenix Mercury Sunday at 8/16 - 7:00 PM EDT. POR is 3-4 in their last 7. PHX is 3-4 in their last 7.
Vegas opened PHX as a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 176.5. PHX's moneyline implies a 69% break-even, POR the inverse. PHX comes in with 3 extra days of rest.
For bettors: the PHX side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 176.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
45
FG %
44
Season series
PHX leads series 1-0
Jun 6PHX78@POR72
PHX78@POR72Aug 16POR@PHXtoday
POR@PHXtodaySep 18PHX@PORupcoming
PHX@PORupcomingModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
PHX -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
176.5
High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg
Moneyline
POR+18036%PHX-21869%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 124 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
0.0 since open
Total
176.5
0.0 since open
Scouting report
POR @ PHX
Rest going in
PHX +3 days
PORStandard
1 day
last game Aug 14
PHXLong rest
4 days
last game Aug 11
Model edge vs market
Pass · split signalSpread
Market
PHX -5.5
Model
POR -1.9
Edge
split
Total
Market
176.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
PHX -218
Model
POR
Edge
fading market
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
PORmetricPHX
14-20
Record
13-22
#5
Conf rank
#6
-4.6
Pt diff
-3.5
W1
Streak
W1
4-6
Last 10
5-5
42.9
Power score
41.0
#8
Power rank
#10
56.0
Sched ahead
57.0
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
PHX -5.5·O/U 176.5·POR +180/PHX -218
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
PHX vs POR.
PHX is 5-5 recently; POR is 4-6.
54.6%
model · PHX win prob
Recent form
- PHX5–5-2.5
- POR4–6-0.8
Situational
- PHX5d rest
- POR2d rest
- +3.0d differential
PHX has 3 more rest days. PHX has 5 straight road games; POR has 1.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.3points · ±7.6
Kahleah Copper · 19.3 pts · last-10 18.9 vs season 20.
- Bridget CarletonPOR16.2points · ±6.7
Bridget Carleton · 16.2 pts · last-10 17.3 vs season 14.5.
- Carla LeitePOR15.8points · ±6.5
Carla Leite · 15.8 pts · last-10 16.2 vs season 15.2.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
PHX is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-05PHX @ POR78–72
Line move
open -205→-218toward PHX
The market has moved 1.3pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
52.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
56.9%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
52.4%
P(PHX win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
56.5%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.01 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
87% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-1.27
CLV pp
Open price
+170
Close price
+180
Open no-vig
35.5%
Close no-vig
34.3%
Market faded the model
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in POR at PHX?
- The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
PHX vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 95 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumPHX20.4± 12.3medium
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.3± 7.6high
- Bridget CarletonPOR16.2± 6.7high
Rebounds
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.0± 3.0high
- DeWanna BonnerPHX7.0± 3.3high
- Bridget CarletonPOR5.7± 3.1high
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.5± 3.2high
- Carla LeitePOR6.7± 3.4high
- Kelsey PlumPHX5.3± 3.4medium
Blocks
- DeWanna BonnerPHX1.0± 1.1high
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.0± 0.7high
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2medium
Steals
- DeWanna BonnerPHX1.4± 1.0high
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.3± 1.4high
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.3± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
Elsewhere in the WNBA