Recent form
4-6
DAL -0.6 vs TOR -15.3 margin
DAL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Toronto Tempo at Dallas Wings
TOR
TOR
10-22
PregameWed, 8:00 PM EDTUSA Net
DAL
DAL
19-14
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
oronto Tempo visit Dallas Wings Wednesday at 8/12 - 8:00 PM EDT.
Vegas opened DAL as a 9.5-point favorite with the total at 184.5. DAL's moneyline implies a 82% break-even, TOR the inverse.
For bettors: the DAL side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 184.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line just movedMoneyline ↗ 15 over 6.3hjust now
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
TOR
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
45
FG %
46
Season series
DAL leads series 2-0
Jul 5DAL89@TOR76
DAL89@TOR76Jul 10DAL108@TOR95
DAL108@TOR95Aug 13TOR@DALtoday
TOR@DALtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DAL -9.5
Half-pt below key 10
Total
184.5
High-scoring · +19.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.3h
Moneyline
TOR+35022%DAL-45582%15· 6.3h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 105 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
9.5
0.0 since open
Total
184.5
+1.0 since open
Scouting report
TOR @ DAL
StorylineTOR dropped 9 straight · DAL lost 3 in a row.
Rest going in
DAL +1 day
TORStandard
2 days
last game Aug 10
DALLong rest
3 days
last game Aug 9
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
DAL -9.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
184.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
DAL -455
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
TORmetricDAL
10-22
Record
19-14
#6
Conf rank
#4
-6.5
Pt diff
+2.7
L9
Streak
L3
1-9
Last 10
4-6
76.8
Sched ahead
78.5
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
DAL -9.5·O/U 184.5·TOR +350/DAL -455
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
DAL vs TOR.
DAL has dropped 3 straight; TOR is 1-9 over its last 10.
76.1%
model · DAL win prob
Recent form
- DAL4–6-0.6
- TOR1–9-15.3
Situational
- DAL3d rest
- TOR2d rest
- +1.0d differential
DAL has 1 more rest day. DAL has 1 straight road games; TOR has 4.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Marina MabreyTOR20.3points · ±9.5
Marina Mabrey · 20.3 pts · last-10 19.9 vs season 20.8.
- Paige BueckersDAL18.8points · ±5.9
Paige Bueckers · 18.8 pts · last-10 18.2 vs season 19.6.
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL16.2points · ±7.9
Arike Ogunbowale · 16.2 pts · last-10 17.4 vs season 14.5.
Head-to-head · 2-0 · last 2
DAL is 2-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-05DAL @ TOR89–76
- 2026-07-10DAL @ TOR108–95
Line move
open -455→-455flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
73.6%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
73.7%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
72.1%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
68.7%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.09 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+350
Close price
+350
Open no-vig
21.3%
Close no-vig
21.3%
Line barely moved
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at DAL?
- The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
DAL vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 100 high confidence
Points
- Marina MabreyTOR20.3± 9.5high
- Paige BueckersDAL18.8± 5.9high
- Brittney SykesTOR18.1± 10.6medium
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.5± 5.1high
- Aneesah MorrowTOR6.7± 3.5high
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR5.2± 3.4high
Assists
- Julie AllemandTOR6.0± 3.2high
- Paige BueckersDAL5.5± 2.9high
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.1± 3.0high
Blocks
- Awak KuierDAL1.1± 1.3high
- Nyara SaballyTOR0.7± 0.7high
- Azzi FuddDAL0.6± 0.7high
Steals
- Azzi FuddDAL1.7± 1.1high
- Julie AllemandTOR1.4± 1.1high
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL1.2± 1.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
Elsewhere in the WNBA