Recent form
6-4
CIN -0.4 vs CHW -0.5 margin
CIN brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox
CIN
CIN
56-61
PregameWed, 7:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
CHW
CHW
61-56
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketRate Field · Chicago, Illinois
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Rhett Lowder
SP · #25
4-7
W-L
5.26
ERA
1.48
WHIP
73
K
89.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsATHW(4-7)6.0 IP2 ER3 K
vsPIT-6.0 IP2 ER5 K
@STL-5.0 IP2 ER4 K
Home starter
Luis Castillo
SP · #58
3-9
W-L
5.30
ERA
1.41
WHIP
91
K
103.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@BOS-4.0 IP5 ER5 K
@LAD-5.0 IP5 ER2 K
vsCINL(3-9)7.0 IP3 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob38% / 62%
LeanHome · 12pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesCIN wins series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CHW vs CIN.
CHW is 5-5 recently; CIN is 6-4.
62.0%
model · CHW win prob
Recent form
- CHW5–5-0.5
- CIN6–4-0.4
Situational
- CHW3d rest
- CIN3d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CHW has 0 straight road games; CIN has 3.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Sean BurkeCHW7.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Sean Burke · 7.1 K · last-10 7.7 vs season 6.3.
- Chase BurnsCIN6.3strikeouts · ±2.4
Chase Burns · 6.3 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.5.
- Brady SingerCIN4.9strikeouts · ±1.3
Brady Singer · 4.9 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 4.3.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
62.0%
ensemble · CHW favored
Elo Static
62.0%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.0%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.1%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.05 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHW vs CIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 114 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Sean BurkeCHW7.1± 2.4high
- Chase BurnsCIN6.3± 2.4high
- Brady SingerCIN4.9± 1.3high
Hits
- Elly De La CruzCIN1.0± 0.9high
- Sal StewartCIN1.0± 0.7high
- Chase MeidrothCHW0.9± 1.0high
Total bases
- Munetaka MurakamiCHW2.0± 1.8high
- Elly De La CruzCIN2.0± 2.1high
- Sal StewartCIN1.9± 2.0high
RBIs
- Sal StewartCIN0.8± 1.2high
- Colson MontgomeryCHW0.7± 1.2high
- Munetaka MurakamiCHW0.6± 0.7high
Earned runs
- Davis MartinCHW3.2± 3.3high
- Luis CastilloCHW2.8± 1.6high
- Rhett LowderCIN2.7± 2.6high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CIN
league avg
CHW
.706
OPS
.719
▶.722
.309
OBP
.318
▶.317
4.12
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.76
4.48
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.11
1.41
WHIP
1.31
▶1.31
8.1
K / 9
8.5
▶8.5
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 12CIN
Reds
65-73
vs62.1%CHW
CHW★
White Sox
77-63
CIN 37.9%win prob62.1% CHW
CHW 1522 · CIN 1461Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
