Recent form
5-5
NYY -0.6 vs SEA -2.6 margin
NYY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
SEA
SEA
56-63
PregameWed, 7:00 PM EDTESPN
NYY
NYY
66-52
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketYankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Bryce Miller
SP · #50
4-6
W-L
3.08
ERA
0.95
WHIP
79
K
79.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsDETL(4-6)5.0 IP4 ER5 K
vsMIN-5.1 IP2 ER3 K
@TEXL(4-5)5.1 IP5 ER0 K
Home starter
Will Warren
SP · #29
8-6
W-L
4.18
ERA
1.37
WHIP
114
K
114.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSTLL(8-6)5.1 IP3 ER5 K
@CHCW(8-5)6.2 IP0 ER7 K
@PHIL(7-5)3.0 IP6 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob38% / 62%
LeanHome · 12pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesNYY lead series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
NYY vs SEA.
NYY is 5-5 recently; SEA is 3-7.
61.9%
model · NYY win prob
Recent form
- NYY5–5-0.6
- SEA3–7-2.6
Situational
- NYY3d rest
- SEA3d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYY has 0 straight road games; SEA has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Cam SchlittlerNYY8.1strikeouts · ±2.7
Cam Schlittler · 8.1 K · last-10 8.6 vs season 7.3.
- Logan GilbertSEA6.6strikeouts · ±2.0
Logan Gilbert · 6.6 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 6.3.
- Bryan WooSEA5.8strikeouts · ±1.7
Bryan Woo · 5.8 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 5.8.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.7%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
61.9%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.6%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.3%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.72 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYY vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 113 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cam SchlittlerNYY8.1± 2.7high
- Gerrit ColeNYY6.6± 2.7low
- Logan GilbertSEA6.6± 2.0high
Hits
- Cole YoungSEA1.2± 1.3high
- Julio RodriguezSEA1.1± 0.7high
- George Lombard Jr.NYY1.0± 0.9low
Total bases
- George Lombard Jr.NYY2.2± 2.9low
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY2.2± 3.0high
- Cole YoungSEA1.7± 1.7high
RBIs
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY0.7± 0.9high
- Cal RaleighSEA0.6± 1.1high
- Josh NaylorSEA0.5± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Bryan WooSEA3.1± 2.4high
- Will WarrenNYY2.5± 2.3high
- George KirbySEA2.4± 2.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SEA
league avg
NYY
.683
OPS
.719
▶.720
.308
OBP
.318
.309
3.88
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.50
3.78
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.30
1.20
WHIP
1.31
▶1.18
8.6
K / 9
8.5
▶9.1
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 12SEA
Mariners
67-79
vs62.0%NYY
NYY★
Yankees
77-64
SEA 38.0%win prob62.0% NYY
NYY 1528 · SEA 1468Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- OriolesTwins8/12 - 1:40 PM EDT
- PhilliesCardinals8/12 - 2:15 PM EDT
- RaysAthletics8/12 - 3:05 PM EDT
- RockiesDiamondbacks8/12 - 3:40 PM EDT
- AstrosGiants8/12 - 3:45 PM EDT
- BrewersPadres8/12 - 4:10 PM EDT
- GuardiansTigers8/12 - 6:40 PM EDT
- PiratesMarlins8/12 - 6:40 PM EDT
- CubsNationals8/12 - 6:45 PM EDT
- Red SoxBlue Jays8/12 - 7:07 PM EDT
- MetsBraves8/12 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RedsWhite Sox8/12 - 7:40 PM EDT
- RangersAngels8/12 - 10:00 PM EDT
- RoyalsDodgers8/12 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
