Chicago Sky at Golden State Valkyries
CHI
4-11
GS
10-6
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
hicago Sky visit Golden State Valkyries Wednesday at 8/12 - 10:00 PM EDT. GS is 5-5 in their last 10.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
GS
Home
43
FG %
41
Season series
CHI leads series 1-0
CHI69@GS63CHI@GStodayGS@CHIupcomingScouting report
CHI @ GS
Tale of the tape
4-11
Record
10-7
#6
Conf rank
#4
-5.0
Pt diff
+4.4
L5
Streak
L2
1-9
Last 10
5-5
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.1%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Gabby WilliamsGS17.2± 8.3medium
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Skylar DigginsCHI15.8± 6.2medium
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI7.5± 4.3medium
- Azura StevensCHI6.2± 5.3low
- Kayla ThorntonGS5.5± 3.3medium
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.3± 2.7medium
- Skylar DigginsCHI4.5± 3.2medium
- Natasha CloudCHI4.3± 3.0low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.7± 2.2medium
- Kiah StokesGS1.6± 1.6medium
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.3± 1.1medium
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.5± 0.8medium
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.1± 1.2low
- Gabriela JaquezCHI1.1± 1.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
GS
42.6%
FG%
44.6
40.6%
31.4%
3PT %
33.5
▶36.3%
83.7
PPG
85.9
84.4
19.5
Assists / G
18.0
18.9
12.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.2