Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at GS?

The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

CHI

12-21

PregameWed, 10:00 PM EDTUSA Net, CNBC

23-9

ATS/GS -9.5O/U/164.5ML/GS-500

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

8-2

GS +8.3 vs CHI +1.2 margin

GS brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+1.0 days

GS 3 rest vs CHI 2

GS has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+266.0

GS Elo vs CHI Elo

GS owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing CHI uphill early today again.

WNBAWed, Aug 128/12 - 10:00 PM EDTSeriesCHI leads series 1-0VegasGS -9.5

Preview · WNBA

hicago Sky visit Golden State Valkyries Wednesday at 8/12 - 10:00 PM EDT. CHI is 3-4 in their last 7. GS arrives on a 4-game win streak (4-1 in their last 5).

Vegas opened GS as a 9.5-point favorite with the total at 164.5. GS's moneyline implies a 83% break-even, CHI the inverse.

For bettors: the GS side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 164.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

Home

FG %

Season series

CHI leads series 1-0

May 14

CHI69@

GS63

Aug 13

CHI@

GStoday

Aug 21

GS@

CHIupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

164.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+38021%

GS-50083%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -9.5↗SpreadBet GS -9.5↗

Line movement · 103 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

164.5

0.0 since open

Scouting report

CHI @ GS

8/12 - 10:00 PM EDT

StorylineGS on a 4-game roll.

Rest going in

GS +1 day

CHIStandard

2 days

last game Aug 10

GSLong rest

3 days

last game Aug 9

Model edge vs market

Strong edge

Spread

Market

GS -9.5

Model

GS -36.6

Edge

+27.1 pts

Total

Market

164.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

GS -500

Model

Edge

aligned

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

CHImetricGS

12-21

Record

23-9

Conf rank

-2.0

Pt diff

+6.2

Streak

5-5

Last 10

8-2

44.8

Power score

81.3

Power rank

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

GS -9.5·O/U 164.5·CHI +380/GS -500

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

GS vs CHI.

GS enters on a 4-game win streak; CHI is 5-5 over its last 10.

90.7%

model · GS win prob

Recent form

GS8–2+8.3
CHI5–5+1.2

Situational

GS3d rest
CHI2d rest
+1.0d differential

GS has 1 more rest day. GS has 2 straight road games; CHI has 1.

Model angle

+10.7ppon GS

GS's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. The signals lean the same way.

▲Model confidence+3.7pp
▲Venue split+3.7pp
▲Recent form+2.0pp

Players to watch

Sydney TaylorCHI
17.5points · ±6.0
Sydney Taylor · 17.5 pts · last-10 19.3 vs season 14.7.
Kamilla CardosoCHI
14.2points · ±4.8
Kamilla Cardoso · 14.2 pts · last-10 14.4 vs season 13.9.
Janelle SalaunGS
14.2points · ±6.6
Janelle Salaun · 14.2 pts · last-10 14.9 vs season 13.1.

Head-to-head · 3-1 · last 4

GS is 3-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-06-28CHI @ GS78–83
2025-08-01GS @ CHI73–66
2025-08-15GS @ CHI90–59
2026-05-13CHI @ GS69–63

Line move

open -500→-500flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

88.8%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
87.4%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
86.3%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
82.4%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like GS.

GS's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. The signals lean the same way.

+10.7

pp edge · GS

0.00

CLV pp

5.0u · large

on GS

93.7%

±7.4pp band

5u large — +10.4pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+13.7pp

+3.0pp post-cal

Kelly

62.2%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.20

+10.4pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 10.7pp · GS over CHI

▲
Model confidence90% conf
GS clears the model's lock threshold.
+3.7pp
▲
Venue split68% conf
GS's venue form is 68.9pp stronger in the recent sample.
+3.7pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
GS is 4-1 over its last 5; CHI is 2-3.
+2.0pp
▲
Rest advantage65% conf
GS has 3 days rest; CHI has 2.
+0.7pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
GS has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.5pp

Open price

-500

Close price

-500

Open no-vig

80.0%

Close no-vig

80.0%

Line barely moved

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at GS?: The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

GS vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Sydney TaylorCHI
17.5± 6.0high
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low
Kamilla CardosoCHI
14.2± 4.8high

Rebounds

Kamilla CardosoCHI
8.9± 3.6high
Azura StevensCHI
7.3± 3.0high
Kiah StokesGS
5.6± 2.4high

Assists

Veronica BurtonGS
6.2± 1.8high
Natasha CloudCHI
5.7± 2.0high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
5.1± 2.7medium

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.7± 1.4high
Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.2± 0.7high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low

Steals

Veronica BurtonGS
1.6± 0.8high
Gabby WilliamsGS
1.5± 0.8high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.4± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Chicago SkyGolden State Valkyries

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Chicago Sky at Golden State Valkyries

GS vs CHI.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like GS.

GS vs CHI.