Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 11, 2026

MIL

74-44

PregameTue, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV

62-57

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Petco Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

7-3

SD +1.1 vs MIL +0.9 margin

SD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Petco Park · San Diego, California

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Kyle Harrison

SP · #52

9-2

W-L

2.84

ERA

1.04

WHIP

111

88.2

Last 3 starts

vsPITW(9-2)5.0 IP0 ER10 K

@STLL(8-2)4.0 IP3 ER2 K

@ARI-2.2 IP3 ER3 K

Home starter

Walker Buehler

SP · #10

6-5

W-L

5.07

ERA

1.46

WHIP

108.1

Last 3 starts

@ARI-4.0 IP1 ER3 K

vsSF-4.1 IP3 ER1 K

@MIA-5.1 IP2 ER7 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob47% / 53%

LeanTossup

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1

TypePreseason Series

Scouting report · pre-game

SD vs MIL.

SD is 7-3 recently; MIL is 7-3.

52.5%

model · SD win prob

Recent form

SD7–3+1.1
MIL7–3+0.9

Situational

SD2d rest
MIL2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. SD has 0 straight road games; MIL has 0.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp

Players to watch

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4strikeouts · ±2.7
Jacob Misiorowski · 9.4 K · last-10 9.5 vs season 9.3.
Dustin MayMIL
5.1strikeouts · ±2.6
Dustin May · 5.1 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.
Shane DrohanMIL
5.0strikeouts · ±2.1
Shane Drohan · 5 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 4.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
50.4%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.8%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.1%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.7high
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.2± 4.5medium
Logan HendersonMIL
6.2± 2.8low

Hits

Brice TurangMIL
1.1± 0.9high
Jake BauersMIL
1.1± 0.7high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Jake BauersMIL
2.0± 1.7high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.9± 2.1high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.9± 1.7high

RBIs

Brice TurangMIL
0.9± 0.9high
Jackson MerrillSD
0.8± 0.9high
Austin HaysSD
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Walker BuehlerSD
2.9± 2.8high
Robert GasserMIL
2.7± 3.0low
Dustin MayMIL
2.3± 2.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

.735

OPS

◀

.719

.698

.337

OBP

◀

.318

.313

4.96

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.24

3.47

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.16

1.16

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.32

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

The One modelTossup

Tue, Aug 11

MIL

Brewers

78-58

vs52.6%SD

SD★

Padres

71-69

MIL 47.4%win prob52.6% SD

SD 1516 · MIL 1537Box score→

Team pages

Milwaukee BrewersSan Diego Padres

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres

The matchup, end-to-end.

SD vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league