Recent form
7-3
ATL +2.8 vs TOR -15.4 margin
ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Toronto Tempo at Atlanta Dream
TOR
TOR
10-21
PregameMon, 8:00 PM EDTPeacock, NBCSN
ATL
ATL
19-12
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
oronto Tempo visit Atlanta Dream Monday at 8/10 - 8:00 PM EDT. ATL is 3-2 in their last 5.
Vegas opened ATL as a 13.5-point favorite with the total at 186.5. ATL's moneyline implies a 89% break-even, TOR the inverse.
For bettors: the ATL side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 186.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
TOR
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
45
FG %
43
Season series
ATL leads series 3-0
Jun 14ATL102@TOR77
ATL102@TOR77Jun 22TOR87@ATL94
TOR87@ATL94Jul 17ATL111@TOR92
ATL111@TOR92Aug 11TOR@ATLtoday
TOR@ATLtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ATL -13.5
Between 10 and —
2.0pt· 6.4h
Total
186.5
High-scoring · +21.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.4h
Moneyline
TOR+55015%ATL-80089%125· 6.4h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
13.5
+2.0 since open
Total
186.5
+3.0 since open
Scouting report
TOR @ ATL
StorylineTOR dropped 8 straight.
Rest going in
TOR +1 day
TORLong rest
4 days
last game Aug 6
ATLLong rest
3 days
last game Aug 7
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
ATL -13.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
186.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
ATL -800
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
TORmetricATL
10-21
Record
19-12
#6
Conf rank
#2
-6.3
Pt diff
+3.3
L8
Streak
L1
1-9
Last 10
7-3
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
ATL -13.5·O/U 186.5·TOR +550/ATL -800
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
ATL vs TOR.
ATL is 7-3 recently; TOR is 1-9.
84.8%
model · ATL win prob
Recent form
- ATL7–3+2.8
- TOR1–9-15.4
Situational
- ATL3d rest
- TOR4d rest
- -1.0d differential
TOR has 1 more rest day. ATL has 1 straight road games; TOR has 3.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Marina MabreyTOR19.9points · ±9.1
Marina Mabrey · 19.9 pts · last-10 19.7 vs season 20.3.
- Allisha GrayATL19.3points · ±6.1
Allisha Gray · 19.3 pts · last-10 20 vs season 18.2.
- Angel ReeseATL15.5points · ±8.3
Angel Reese · 15.5 pts · last-10 15.9 vs season 14.8.
Head-to-head · 3-0 · last 3
ATL is 3-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-14ATL @ TOR102–77
- 2026-06-22TOR @ ATL87–94
- 2026-07-17ATL @ TOR111–92
Line move
open -675→-800toward ATL
The market has moved 1.8pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
82.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
81.9%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
80.1%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
76.9%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.07 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-1.54
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+490
Close price
+550
Open no-vig
16.3%
Close no-vig
14.8%
Market faded the model hard
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at ATL?
- The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
TOR
no live price
ATL
no live price
| Book | TOR | ATL | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +550 | -800 | +0.4 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
ATL vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 90 high confidence
Points
- Marina MabreyTOR19.9± 9.1high
- Allisha GrayATL19.3± 6.1high
- Brittney SykesTOR18.1± 10.6medium
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL11.3± 3.8high
- Aneesah MorrowTOR7.0± 3.1high
- Brionna JonesATL6.6± 2.6low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL8.1± 2.5high
- Julie AllemandTOR6.4± 2.9high
- Rhyne HowardATL3.9± 2.0high
Blocks
- Rhyne HowardATL1.0± 1.4high
- Brionna JonesATL0.7± 1.5low
- Nyara SaballyTOR0.6± 0.7high
Steals
- Jordin CanadaATL2.0± 1.2high
- Rhyne HowardATL2.0± 1.4high
- Angel ReeseATL1.7± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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