Recent form
3-7
KC -1.7 vs LAD -1.8 margin
KC brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers
KC
KC
49-70
PregameTue, 10:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
LAD
LAD
70-48
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Michael Wacha
SP · #52
5-8
W-L
3.44
ERA
1.15
WHIP
112
K
144.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIN-5.2 IP1 ER1 K
@COLL(5-8)6.0 IP1 ER7 K
@DET-7.0 IP2 ER3 K
Home starter
Blake Snell
SP · #7
0-1
W-L
12.00
ERA
2.67
WHIP
5
K
3.0
IP
Last 1 starts
vsATLL(0-1)3.0 IP4 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob37% / 63%
LeanHome · 13pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesLAD win series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
LAD vs KC.
LAD is 2-8 recently; KC is 3-7.
62.8%
model · LAD win prob
Recent form
- LAD2–8-1.8
- KC3–7-1.7
Situational
- LAD2d rest
- KC2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. LAD has 6 straight road games; KC has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD5.9strikeouts · ±2.0
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 5.9 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 6.
- Roki SasakiLAD5.5strikeouts · ±2.5
Roki Sasaki · 5.5 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.3.
- Noah CameronKC5.3strikeouts · ±3.4
Noah Cameron · 5.3 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 5.3.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.6%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
63.3%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.8%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.3%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.11 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAD vs KC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
129
projections · 100 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.5± 2.8medium
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD5.9± 2.0high
- Kris BubicLAD5.7± 3.6low
Hits
- Shohei OhtaniLAD1.4± 1.0high
- Jac CaglianoneKC1.3± 1.1high
- Andy PagesLAD1.3± 0.8high
Total bases
- Shohei OhtaniLAD2.7± 3.1high
- Jac CaglianoneKC2.6± 3.4high
- Andy PagesLAD2.0± 1.8high
RBIs
- Luke MaileKC1.0± 1.6low
- Jac CaglianoneKC0.9± 1.3high
- Shohei OhtaniLAD0.9± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Noah CameronKC3.0± 2.6high
- Seth LugoKC3.0± 2.1high
- Roki SasakiLAD2.7± 2.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
KC
league avg
LAD
.710
OPS
.719
▶.766
.312
OBP
.318
▶.338
4.13
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.01
4.84
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.72
1.43
WHIP
1.30
▶1.16
7.6
K / 9
8.5
▶9.1
The One modelEdge
Tue, Aug 11KC
Royals
61-78
vs62.8%LAD
LAD★
Dodgers
85-62
KC 37.2%win prob62.8% LAD
LAD 1545 · KC 1474Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
