Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 11, 2026

PIT

58-62

PregameTue, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV

MIA

60-59

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

LoanDepot Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

5-5

MIA +0.9 vs PIT -1.5 margin

MIA brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Paul Skenes

SP · #30

9-10

W-L

3.96

ERA

1.12

WHIP

162

129.2

Last 3 starts

@MILL(9-10)5.0 IP3 ER6 K

@CIN-4.0 IP5 ER7 K

vsCHCL(9-9)5.1 IP5 ER11 K

Home starter

Eury Perez

SP · #39

5-9

W-L

3.61

ERA

1.13

WHIP

121

109.2

Last 3 starts

@ATLL(5-9)5.0 IP4 ER9 K

@NYM-6.0 IP1 ER6 K

vsSDL(5-8)7.0 IP3 ER2 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob43% / 57%

LeanHome · 7pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesMIA leads series 2-1

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

MIA vs PIT.

MIA is 5-5 recently; PIT is 3-7.

57.5%

model · MIA win prob

Recent form

MIA5–5+0.9
PIT3–7-1.5

Situational

MIA2d rest
PIT2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. MIA has 0 straight road games; PIT has 0.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp

Players to watch

Paul SkenesPIT
7.1strikeouts · ±2.1
Paul Skenes · 7.1 K · last-10 7.3 vs season 6.8.
Eury PerezMIA
6.2strikeouts · ±2.9
Eury Perez · 6.2 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 6.1.
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.1strikeouts · ±2.2
Braxton Ashcraft · 6.1 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 6.3.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
56.7%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.1%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.6%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.1± 2.1high
Eury PerezMIA
6.2± 2.9high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.1± 2.2high

Hits

Brandon LowePIT
1.1± 0.9high
Jake MangumPIT
1.1± 1.0high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.0± 1.7high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.8± 2.1high
Javier SanojaMIA
1.6± 1.5high

RBIs

Xavier EdwardsMIA
0.6± 1.1high
Brandon LowePIT
0.6± 0.5high
Griffin ConineMIA
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Janson JunkMIA
2.9± 3.4medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
2.9± 2.2high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

MIA

.746

OPS

◀

.719

.731

.334

OBP

◀

.318

.326

5.02

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.40

4.34

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.97

1.33

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.25

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

The One modelLean

Tue, Aug 11

PIT

Pirates

63-70

vs57.5%MIA

MIA★

Marlins

71-69

PIT 42.5%win prob57.5% MIA

MIA 1502 · PIT 1480Box score→

Team pages

Pittsburgh PiratesMiami Marlins

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins

The matchup, end-to-end.

MIA vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league