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Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants

HOU
HOU

HOU

60-59

PregameTue, 9:45 PM EDTMLB.TV
SF
SF

SF

49-69

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

94 total idx

Oracle Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

6-4

HOU +1.6 vs SF -1.6 margin

HOU brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
⤓

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

›

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Hunter Brown

Hunter Brown

SP · #58

3-1

W-L

3.53

ERA

1.24

WHIP

63

K

58.2

IP

Last 3 starts

vsTOR-6.0 IP3 ER8 K
vsTEXW(3-1)5.2 IP2 ER5 K
@CHWW(2-1)7.0 IP0 ER7 K

Home starter

Carson Whisenhunt

Carson Whisenhunt

SP · #88

2-3

W-L

7.25

ERA

1.84

WHIP

20

K

22.1

IP

Last 3 starts

@TEXL(2-3)3.1 IP4 ER4 K
@SDL(2-2)3.1 IP6 ER3 K
vsLAAL(2-1)5.0 IP4 ER7 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob64% / 36%
LeanAway · 14pp
ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 8/10
TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

SF vs HOU.

SF is 3-7 recently; HOU is 6-4.

36.3%

model · SF win prob

Recent form

  • SF3–7-1.6
  • HOU6–4+1.6

Situational

  • SF2d rest
  • HOU2d rest
  • +0.0d differential

Rest is even. SF has 0 straight road games; HOU has 3.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.5 runs from the total environment.

  • ▼Weather + park-0.5pp

Players to watch

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7strikeouts · ±2.2

    Peter Lambert · 5.7 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 5.6.

  • Logan WebbSF
    5.0strikeouts · ±2.1

    Logan Webb · 5 K · last-10 5 vs season 5.1.

  • Landen RouppSF
    4.9strikeouts · ±2.1

    Landen Roupp · 4.9 K · last-10 4.6 vs season 5.3.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

32.8%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    41.9%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    37.4%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    40.0%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.84 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.2high
  • Hunter BrownHOU
    5.5± 2.6low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    5.2± 4.2medium

Hits

  • Jose AltuveHOU
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Yainer DiazHOU
    1.2± 1.6high

Total bases

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.1± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.1± 2.3high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    2.0± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Osleivis BasabeSF
    0.9± 1.8low
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 0.9high
  • LaMonte Wade Jr.HOU
    0.7± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Ronel BlancoHOU
    3.8± 1.3low
  • Carson WhisenhuntSF
    3.6± 2.3low
  • Landen RouppSF
    2.6± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

HOU

league avg

SF

SF

.736

OPS

◀

.719

.716

.321

OBP

◀

.318

.307

4.62

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.11

4.59

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.37

1.36

WHIP

1.30

1.36

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

The One modelEdge
Tue, Aug 11
HOU

HOU★

Astros

78-68

vs63.7%HOU

SF

Giants

68-80

SF
HOU 63.7%win prob36.3% SF
HOU 1538 · SF 1457Box score→

Team pages

Houston AstrosatSan Francisco Giants

Elsewhere in the MLB

  • Guardians@Tigers8/11 - 6:40 PM EDT
  • Pirates@Marlins8/11 - 6:40 PM EDT
  • Cubs@Nationals8/11 - 6:45 PM EDT
  • Mariners@Yankees8/11 - 7:05 PM EDT
  • Red Sox@Blue Jays8/11 - 7:07 PM EDT
  • Mets@Braves8/11 - 7:15 PM EDT
  • Orioles@Twins8/11 - 7:40 PM EDT
  • Reds@White Sox8/11 - 7:40 PM EDT
  • Phillies@Cardinals8/11 - 7:45 PM EDT
  • Rangers@Angels8/11 - 9:38 PM EDT
  • Rockies@Diamondbacks8/11 - 9:40 PM EDT
  • Brewers@Padres8/11 - 9:40 PM EDT
  • Rays@Athletics8/11 - 9:40 PM EDT
  • Royals@Dodgers8/11 - 10:10 PM EDT

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 70-34
63%Last 30 · 265-154
Receipts →
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Manaea (NYM): 7.0 IP · 11 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBP. Alonso (BAL): 3 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over TEX — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Sent RHP Tyler Glasnow on a rehab assignment to Oklahoma City (PCL) (Aug 9)
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Schlittler (NYY): 7.0 IP · 11 K · 1 ER against ATL
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Luzardo (PHI): 7.0 IP · 12 K · 2 ER in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBBraves: Released SS Jorge Mateo (Aug 9)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAK. McBride (MIN): 43 PTS · 1 REB · 1 AST in a win over DAL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAP. Bueckers (DAL): 23 PTS · 4 REB · 8 AST against MIN
TRANSACTION · MLBAthletics: Claimer RHP Taylor Rashi off waivers from Minnesota and optioned him to Las Ve…
TRANSACTION · NHLCanadiens: Loaned F Vinzenz Rohrer to EV Zug (Switzerland) (Aug 9)
TRANSACTION · NFLBears: Waived LS Luke Elkin (Aug 9)
TRANSACTION · NFLCowboys: Waived RB Dominic Richardson and DE Charles Snowden (Aug 9)
TONIGHT · WNBATOR @ ATL, 8/10 - 8:00 PM EDT — ATL -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Manaea (NYM): 7.0 IP · 11 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBP. Alonso (BAL): 3 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over TEX — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Sent RHP Tyler Glasnow on a rehab assignment to Oklahoma City (PCL) (Aug 9)
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Schlittler (NYY): 7.0 IP · 11 K · 1 ER against ATL
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Luzardo (PHI): 7.0 IP · 12 K · 2 ER in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBBraves: Released SS Jorge Mateo (Aug 9)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAK. McBride (MIN): 43 PTS · 1 REB · 1 AST in a win over DAL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAP. Bueckers (DAL): 23 PTS · 4 REB · 8 AST against MIN
TRANSACTION · MLBAthletics: Claimer RHP Taylor Rashi off waivers from Minnesota and optioned him to Las Ve…
TRANSACTION · NHLCanadiens: Loaned F Vinzenz Rohrer to EV Zug (Switzerland) (Aug 9)
TRANSACTION · NFLBears: Waived LS Luke Elkin (Aug 9)
TRANSACTION · NFLCowboys: Waived RB Dominic Richardson and DE Charles Snowden (Aug 9)
TONIGHT · WNBATOR @ ATL, 8/10 - 8:00 PM EDT — ATL -13.5
MLB·Tue, Aug 11·8/11 - 9:45 PM EDT/Seriesstarts 8/10

Preview · MLB

Houston Astros visit San Francisco Giants Tuesday at 8/11 - 9:45 PM EDT. HOU is 8-4 in their last 12.

The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

MLB · Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants · pregame

MLB · Box score

8/11 - 9:45 PM EDT

No player stats available yet.

No player stats available yet.

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

SF

Home

550

Runs

485

983

Hits

1001

51

Errors

75

1665

TB

1640

161

HR

131

402

BB

309

969

K

930

817

LOB

798

Season series

Series starts 8/10

Aug 11HOUHOU@SFSFupcoming
Aug 12HOUHOU@SFSFtoday
Aug 12HOUHOU@SFSFupcoming

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
HOUHOUSP
H. Brown

H. Brown

#58 · 3-1

ERA

3.53

K

63

SV

—

Last 3 starts

8/5vsTORTOR6.0 IP · 3 ER · 8 K-
8/1vsTEXTEX5.2 IP · 2 ER · 5 KW(3-1)
7/25@CHWCHW7.0 IP · 0 ER · 7 KW(2-1)
VS
SFSFSP
C. Whisenhunt

C. Whisenhunt

#88 · 2-3

ERA

7.25

K

20

SV

—

Last 3 starts

8/5@TEXTEX3.1 IP · 4 ER · 4 KL(2-3)
8/1@SDSD3.1 IP · 6 ER · 3 KL(2-2)
7/26vsLAALAA5.0 IP · 4 ER · 7 KL(2-1)

Scouting report

HOU @ SF

8/11 - 9:45 PM EDT

Rest going in

HOUStandard

2 days

last game Aug 9

SFStandard

2 days

last game Aug 9

Tale of the tape

HOUmetricSF

60-59

Record

49-69

#5

Conf rank

#14

-0.3

Pt diff

-0.5

L2

Streak

L2

6-4

Last 10

3-7

Bullpen used yesterday

HOU

3.0 bullpen IP · heavy

  • A. Blubaugh2.0 IP25 P
  • B. King1.0 IP24 P

L 7-2 · Aug 9

SF

2.0 bullpen IP

  • D. Smith1.0 IP17 P
  • S. Hentges0.1 IP12 P
  • J. Foley0.2 IP18 P

L 3-1 · Aug 9

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.