Recent form
8-2
BOS +3.5 vs TOR +0.1 margin
BOS brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
BOS
BOS
64-53
PregameTue, 7:07 PM EDTMLB.TV
TOR
TOR
56-63
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketRogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Patrick Sandoval
SP · #43
1-0
W-L
3.38
ERA
1.67
WHIP
25
K
24.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCHWW(1-0)5.0 IP2 ER5 K
@ATH-5.0 IP2 ER7 K
vsTOR-4.2 IP0 ER3 K
Home starter
Dylan Cease
SP · #84
7-5
W-L
2.28
ERA
1.04
WHIP
184
K
126.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@CHC-7.0 IP0 ER10 K
vsSTL-6.0 IP1 ER7 K
@BOSW(7-5)9.0 IP0 ER12 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob76% / 25%
LeanAway · 26pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesBOS wins series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
TOR vs BOS.
TOR is 6-4 recently; BOS is 8-2.
24.5%
model · TOR win prob
Recent form
- TOR6–4+0.1
- BOS8–2+3.5
Situational
- TOR2d rest
- BOS2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TOR has 7 straight road games; BOS has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.4strikeouts · ±2.6
Dylan Cease · 8.4 K · last-10 8.4 vs season 8.5.
- Ranger SuarezBOS5.8strikeouts · ±2.5
Ranger Suarez · 5.8 K · last-10 6.1 vs season 5.4.
- Sonny GrayBOS5.7strikeouts · ±2.7
Sonny Gray · 5.7 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 5.
Head-to-head · 1-2 · last 3
TOR is 1-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-24TOR @ BOS4–6
- 2026-07-25TOR @ BOS6–0
- 2026-07-26TOR @ BOS1–6
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
24.2%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
34.5%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
35.8%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
32.6%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.32 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
91% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TOR vs BOS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 105 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.4± 2.6high
- Payton TolleBOS6.8± 3.5medium
- Ranger SuarezBOS5.8± 2.5high
Hits
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.5± 0.8high
- Andruw MonasterioBOS1.2± 0.7high
- Caleb DurbinBOS1.2± 1.1high
Total bases
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2.7± 2.4high
- Wilyer AbreuBOS2.4± 2.7high
- Andruw MonasterioBOS1.9± 1.6high
RBIs
- Andruw MonasterioBOS0.9± 0.8high
- Wilyer AbreuBOS0.9± 1.0high
- Caleb DurbinBOS0.8± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Jameson TaillonTOR3.5± 2.7medium
- Max ScherzerTOR3.2± 3.7low
- Shane BieberTOR2.6± 3.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BOS
league avg
TOR
.722
OPS
◀
.719
.679
.320
OBP
◀
.318
.303
4.47
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.94
3.50
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.02
1.22
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.32
8.7
K / 9
8.5
▶8.9
The One model★ Lock
Tue, Aug 11BOS★
Red Sox
74-67
vs75.5%BOS
TOR
Blue Jays
60-92
BOS 75.5%win prob24.5% TOR
BOS 1578 · TOR 1443Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- GuardiansTigers8/11 - 6:40 PM EDT
- PiratesMarlins8/11 - 6:40 PM EDT
- CubsNationals8/11 - 6:45 PM EDT
- MarinersYankees8/11 - 7:05 PM EDT
- MetsBraves8/11 - 7:15 PM EDT
- OriolesTwins8/11 - 7:40 PM EDT
- RedsWhite Sox8/11 - 7:40 PM EDT
- PhilliesCardinals8/11 - 7:45 PM EDT
- RangersAngels8/11 - 9:38 PM EDT
- RockiesDiamondbacks8/11 - 9:40 PM EDT
- BrewersPadres8/11 - 9:40 PM EDT
- RaysAthletics8/11 - 9:40 PM EDT
- AstrosGiants8/11 - 9:45 PM EDT
- RoyalsDodgers8/11 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
