Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

DAL

19-13

PregameSun, 3:30 PM EDTNBC, Peacock

MIN

26-7

ATS/MIN -6.5O/U/179.5ML/MIN-250

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

9-1

MIN +8.5 vs DAL +2.0 margin

MIN brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

-1.0 days

MIN 1 rest vs DAL 2

DAL has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+203.2

MIN Elo vs DAL Elo

MIN owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing DAL uphill early today again.

WNBASun, Aug 98/9 - 3:30 PM EDTSeriesMIN leads series 3-0VegasMIN -6.5

Preview · WNBA

allas Wings visit Minnesota Lynx Sunday at 8/9 - 3:30 PM EDT. DAL is 3-5 in their last 8. MIN is rolling — 6-1 in their last 7.

Vegas opened MIN as a 6.5-point favorite with the total at 179.5. MIN's moneyline implies a 71% break-even, DAL the inverse. MIN is on a back-to-back.

For bettors: the MIN side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 179.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedSpread ↘ 2.0pt over 6.1hjust now

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

FG %

Season series

MIN leads series 3-0

May 15

MIN90@

DAL86

Jun 10

DAL76@

MIN100

Jun 28

MIN85@

DAL77

Aug 9

DAL@

MINtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

2.0pt· 6.1h

Total

179.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

DAL+20533%

MIN-25071%

40· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -6.5↗SpreadBet MIN -6.5↗

Line movement · 53 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

-2.0 since open

Total

179.5

-1.0 since open

Scouting report

DAL @ MIN

8/9 - 3:30 PM EDT

StorylineMIN 8 spots ahead of DAL in power rank.

Rest going in

DAL +1 day

DALStandard

1 day

last game Aug 7

MINB2B

0 days

last game Aug 8

Model edge vs market

Strong edge

Spread

Market

MIN -6.5

Model

MIN -40.8

Edge

+34.3 pts

Total

Market

179.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

MIN -250

Model

MIN

Edge

aligned

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

DALmetricMIN

19-13

Record

26-7

Conf rank

+3.1

Pt diff

+8.9

Streak

5-5

Last 10

9-1

42.8

Power score

83.6

#10

Power rank

77.7

Sched ahead

54.9

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

MIN -6.5·O/U 179.5·DAL +205/MIN -250

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

MIN vs DAL.

MIN is 9-1 recently; DAL is 5-5.

85.7%

model · MIN win prob

Recent form

MIN9–1+8.5
DAL5–5+2.0

Situational

MIN1d restB2B
DAL2d rest
-1.0d differential

DAL has 1 more rest day. MIN has 0 straight road games; DAL has 0.

Model angle

+17.2ppon MIN

MIN's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Line steam is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▼Line steam-1.3pp
▲Recent form+1.2pp

Players to watch

Olivia MilesMIN
19.9points · ±7.1
Olivia Miles · 19.9 pts · last-10 20.5 vs season 18.9.
Kayla McBrideMIN
19.5points · ±8.7
Kayla McBride · 19.5 pts · last-10 20.9 vs season 17.5.
Paige BueckersDAL
19.4points · ±7.6
Paige Bueckers · 19.4 pts · last-10 19.3 vs season 19.5.

Head-to-head · 5-0 · last 5

MIN is 5-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-06-08MIN @ DAL81–65
2025-09-02DAL @ MIN71–96
2026-05-14MIN @ DAL90–86
2026-06-09DAL @ MIN76–100
2026-06-28MIN @ DAL85–77

Line move

open -298→-250toward DAL

The market has moved 3.4pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

87.0%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
82.8%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
82.9%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
86.2%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like MIN.

MIN's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+17.2

pp edge · MIN

-3.26

CLV pp · steam

5.0u · large

on MIN

88.8%

±8.1pp band

5u large — +17.4pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+20.3pp

+3.1pp post-cal

Kelly

60.8%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.40

+17.4pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 17.2pp · MIN over DAL

▲
Model confidence90% conf
MIN clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▼
Line steam78% conf
The market moved 3.3pp away from MIN since open.
-1.3pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
MIN is 4-1 over its last 5; DAL is 1-4.
+1.2pp
▲
Venue split72% conf
MIN's venue form is 18.2pp stronger in the recent sample.
+0.9pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
MIN has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp
▼
Rest advantage65% conf
DAL has the rest edge entering this game.
-0.3pp

Open price

-298

Close price

-250

Open no-vig

71.8%

Close no-vig

68.5%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

MIN vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Olivia MilesMIN
19.9± 7.1high
Kayla McBrideMIN
19.5± 8.7high
Paige BueckersDAL
19.4± 7.6high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
11.2± 3.7high
Napheesa CollierMIN
7.2± 2.5low
Natasha HowardMIN
7.2± 2.6high

Assists

Olivia MilesMIN
6.0± 2.7high
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.4± 2.6high
Paige BueckersDAL
5.4± 2.8high

Blocks

Awak KuierDAL
1.2± 1.2high
Napheesa CollierMIN
1.2± 1.6low
Natasha HowardMIN
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Natasha HowardMIN
1.8± 1.1high
Azzi FuddDAL
1.7± 1.1high
Kayla McBrideMIN
1.7± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Dallas WingsMinnesota Lynx

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Dallas Wings at Minnesota Lynx

MIN vs DAL.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like MIN.

MIN vs DAL.