Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 11, 2026

SEA

56-63

PregameTue, 7:05 PM EDTMLB.TV, TBS

NYY

66-52

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

5-5

NYY -0.6 vs SEA -2.6 margin

NYY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Bryan Woo

SP · #22

8-8

W-L

4.31

ERA

1.12

WHIP

127

127.1

Last 3 starts

vsDETW(8-8)7.0 IP0 ER5 K

@LADL(7-8)5.0 IP5 ER8 K

@TEXL(7-7)5.0 IP5 ER5 K

Home starter

Ryan Weathers

SP · #40

5-7

W-L

3.79

ERA

1.22

WHIP

132

121.0

Last 3 starts

vsSTLW(5-7)6.0 IP0 ER6 K

@CHW-7.0 IP0 ER4 K

@PHIW(4-7)5.2 IP1 ER7 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob38% / 62%

LeanHome · 12pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesNYY lead series 2-1

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

NYY vs SEA.

NYY is 5-5 recently; SEA is 3-7.

61.7%

model · NYY win prob

Recent form

NYY5–5-0.6
SEA3–7-2.6

Situational

NYY2d rest
SEA2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. NYY has 0 straight road games; SEA has 0.

Model angle

No actionable edge surfaced.

Players to watch

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.8strikeouts · ±2.6
Cam Schlittler · 7.8 K · last-10 8.2 vs season 7.1.
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6strikeouts · ±2.0
Logan Gilbert · 6.6 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 6.3.
Bryan WooSEA
5.8strikeouts · ±1.7
Bryan Woo · 5.8 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 5.8.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.0%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
61.9%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.5%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.6%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYY vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 113 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.8± 2.6high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.6± 2.7low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.0high

Hits

George Lombard Jr.NYY
1.3± 0.7low
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
1.2± 0.9high
Cole YoungSEA
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

George Lombard Jr.NYY
2.7± 2.8low
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
2.4± 2.9high
Josh NaylorSEA
1.8± 3.0high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
0.8± 0.9high
Cal RaleighSEA
0.7± 1.0high
Spencer JonesNYY
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 2.4high
Will WarrenNYY
2.5± 2.3high
George KirbySEA
2.4± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

NYY

.683

OPS

.719

▶

.720

.308

OBP

.318

.309

3.88

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.50

3.78

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.30

1.20

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.18

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

The One modelEdge

Tue, Aug 11

SEA

Mariners

67-79

vs61.7%NYY

NYY★

Yankees

77-64

SEA 38.3%win prob61.7% NYY

NYY 1528 · SEA 1468Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees

The matchup, end-to-end.

NYY vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.

NYY vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league