Recent form
7-3
DET +4.8 vs CLE -0.8 margin
DET brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers
CLE
CLE
58-61
PregameTue, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
DET
DET
58-60
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketComerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Tanner Bibee
SP · #28
4-11
W-L
3.85
ERA
1.13
WHIP
110
K
138.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsNYM-5.2 IP3 ER10 K
vsARIL(4-11)7.1 IP2 ER3 K
@TBL(4-10)6.0 IP3 ER5 K
Home starter
Drew Anderson
RP · #38
4-4
W-L
4.01
ERA
1.29
WHIP
78
K
67.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@SEA-3.2 IP0 ER0 K
@ATH-1.1 IP0 ER2 K
vsBAL-1.1 IP2 ER2 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob48% / 53%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesCLE leads series 6-0
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
DET vs CLE.
DET is 7-3 recently; CLE is 3-7.
52.5%
model · DET win prob
Recent form
- DET7–3+4.8
- CLE3–7-0.8
Situational
- DET2d rest
- CLE2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. DET has 9 straight road games; CLE has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.2strikeouts · ±2.8
Gavin Williams · 8.2 K · last-10 8.6 vs season 7.7.
- Joey CantilloCLE6.1strikeouts · ±2.2
Joey Cantillo · 6.1 K · last-10 6.6 vs season 5.4.
- Parker MessickCLE5.6strikeouts · ±3.1
Parker Messick · 5.6 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 5.7.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
52.9%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
50.4%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.2%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.7%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.67 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DET vs CLE.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 107 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.2± 2.8high
- Joey CantilloCLE6.1± 2.2high
- Troy MeltonDET5.7± 2.4low
Hits
- Angel GenaoCLE1.8± 2.3low
- Max ClarkDET1.4± 1.2low
- Steven KwanCLE1.3± 1.1high
Total bases
- Angel GenaoCLE2.5± 3.2low
- Dillon DinglerDET2.4± 2.3high
- Max ClarkDET2.3± 2.8low
RBIs
- Dillon DinglerDET1.0± 1.4high
- Eduardo ValenciaDET1.0± 2.3low
- Gleyber TorresDET0.9± 1.7high
Earned runs
- Framber ValdezDET2.5± 2.1high
- Gavin WilliamsCLE2.4± 2.1high
- Tanner BibeeCLE2.4± 1.6high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CLE
league avg
DET
.682
OPS
.719
▶.729
.313
OBP
.318
▶.320
3.97
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.57
3.84
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.49
1.28
WHIP
1.30
▶1.20
9.4
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.5
The One modelTossup
Tue, Aug 11CLE
Guardians
78-67
vs52.5%DET
DET★
Tigers
61-75
CLE 47.5%win prob52.5% DET
DET 1500 · CLE 1522Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- PiratesMarlins8/11 - 6:40 PM EDT
- CubsNationals8/11 - 6:45 PM EDT
- MarinersYankees8/11 - 7:05 PM EDT
- Red SoxBlue Jays8/11 - 7:07 PM EDT
- MetsBraves8/11 - 7:15 PM EDT
- OriolesTwins8/11 - 7:40 PM EDT
- RedsWhite Sox8/11 - 7:40 PM EDT
- PhilliesCardinals8/11 - 7:45 PM EDT
- RangersAngels8/11 - 9:38 PM EDT
- RockiesDiamondbacks8/11 - 9:40 PM EDT
- BrewersPadres8/11 - 9:40 PM EDT
- RaysAthletics8/11 - 9:40 PM EDT
- AstrosGiants8/11 - 9:45 PM EDT
- RoyalsDodgers8/11 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
