Park factor
98 total idx
Busch Stadium run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals
PHI
PHI
63-56
PregameTue, 7:45 PM EDTMLB.TV
STL
STL
59-59
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketBusch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Cristopher Sanchez
SP · #61
15-4
W-L
2.65
ERA
1.22
WHIP
174
K
149.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsWSHW(15-4)5.0 IP2 ER6 K
@BALW(14-4)6.0 IP0 ER11 K
vsNYYW(13-4)6.0 IP3 ER6 K
Home starter
Andre Pallante
SP · #53
12-6
W-L
3.63
ERA
1.22
WHIP
90
K
124.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@NYYW(12-6)5.1 IP1 ER4 K
vsCHC-6.1 IP2 ER3 K
vsCINW(11-6)7.0 IP0 ER8 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob48% / 52%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 8/10
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
STL vs PHI.
STL is 5-5 recently; PHI is 6-4.
52.5%
model · STL win prob
Recent form
- STL5–5+0.4
- PHI6–4+1.5
Situational
- STL2d rest
- PHI2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. STL has 0 straight road games; PHI has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.2pp
Players to watch
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4strikeouts · ±3.3
Jesus Luzardo · 7.4 K · last-10 7.7 vs season 6.9.
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.4strikeouts · ±2.9
Cristopher Sanchez · 6.4 K · last-10 6 vs season 7.
- Aaron NolaPHI5.6strikeouts · ±1.5
Aaron Nola · 5.6 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 5.4.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.8%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
50.3%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.1%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.2%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.54 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
STL vs PHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 112 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Zack WheelerPHI7.5± 3.6medium
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4± 3.3high
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.4± 2.9high
Hits
- Luis ArraezPHI1.3± 1.3high
- Trea TurnerPHI1.3± 1.2high
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.1± 0.7high
Total bases
- Trea TurnerPHI2.2± 2.3high
- Bryce HarperPHI2.1± 1.6high
- Alec BurlesonSTL2.0± 3.6high
RBIs
- Bryce HarperPHI0.7± 0.8high
- Bryan De La CruzPHI0.6± 1.3low
- Luis ArraezPHI0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Andrew PainterPHI3.6± 2.8medium
- Aaron NolaPHI3.1± 1.8high
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL3.1± 2.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
PHI
league avg
STL
.709
OPS
◀
.719
.696
.308
OBP
.318
▶.316
4.44
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.36
4.19
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.14
1.31
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.34
9.9
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.7
The One modelTossup
Tue, Aug 11PHI
Phillies
81-70
vs52.4%STL
STL★
Cardinals
71-64
PHI 47.6%win prob52.4% STL
STL 1496 · PHI 1518Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
