Recent form
6-4
ARI +0.5 vs COL +0.1 margin
ARI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
COL
COL
46-72
PregameTue, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
ARI
ARI
63-56
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketChase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Tomoyuki Sugano
SP · #11
11-5
W-L
4.51
ERA
1.26
WHIP
61
K
107.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTBL(11-5)5.0 IP3 ER3 K
vsKCW(11-4)6.2 IP1 ER2 K
@MILW(10-4)5.1 IP2 ER5 K
Home starter
Mitch Bratt
SP · #60
1-1
W-L
3.90
ERA
1.52
WHIP
21
K
27.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSDW(1-1)7.0 IP0 ER9 K
@CLE-5.0 IP1 ER2 K
@WSHL(0-1)5.0 IP5 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob35% / 65%
LeanHome · 15pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesCOL wins series 2-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ARI vs COL.
ARI is 6-4 recently; COL is 4-6.
64.9%
model · ARI win prob
Recent form
- ARI6–4+0.5
- COL4–6+0.1
Situational
- ARI2d rest
- COL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ARI has 0 straight road games; COL has 3.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Kyle FreelandCOL4.8strikeouts · ±2.6
Kyle Freeland · 4.8 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 4.4.
- Merrill KellyARI4.0strikeouts · ±1.5
Merrill Kelly · 4 K · last-10 4.2 vs season 3.8.
- Kyle FreelandCOL3.7earned runs · ±2.1
Kyle Freeland · 3.7 ER · last-10 3.7 vs season 3.8.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
65.1%
ensemble · ARI favored
Elo Static
65.9%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.6%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.8%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.35 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ARI vs COL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 109 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Kyle FreelandCOL4.8± 2.6high
- Gabriel HughesCOL4.7± 3.5low
- Merrill KellyARI4.0± 1.5high
Hits
- James McCannARI1.5± 1.2high
- Jake McCarthyCOL1.4± 1.4high
- Geraldo PerdomoARI1.3± 1.2high
Total bases
- James McCannARI2.5± 2.5high
- Jake McCarthyCOL2.4± 2.9high
- Mickey MoniakCOL2.2± 2.5high
RBIs
- James McCannARI1.2± 1.3high
- Gabriel MorenoARI0.8± 0.9high
- Jake McCarthyCOL0.8± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Kyle FreelandCOL3.7± 2.1high
- Ryan FeltnerCOL3.4± 2.5medium
- Michael LorenzenCOL3.1± 2.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
COL
league avg
ARI
.746
OPS
◀
.719
.708
.324
OBP
◀
.318
.314
4.81
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.51
5.48
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.15
1.52
WHIP
1.30
▶1.29
7.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
6.9
The One modelEdge
Tue, Aug 11COL
Rockies
52-86
vs64.9%ARI
ARI★
Diamondbacks
67-72
COL 35.1%win prob64.9% ARI
ARI 1508 · COL 1418Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- GuardiansTigers8/11 - 6:40 PM EDT
- PiratesMarlins8/11 - 6:40 PM EDT
- CubsNationals8/11 - 6:45 PM EDT
- MarinersYankees8/11 - 7:05 PM EDT
- Red SoxBlue Jays8/11 - 7:07 PM EDT
- MetsBraves8/11 - 7:15 PM EDT
- OriolesTwins8/11 - 7:40 PM EDT
- RedsWhite Sox8/11 - 7:40 PM EDT
- PhilliesCardinals8/11 - 7:45 PM EDT
- RangersAngels8/11 - 9:38 PM EDT
- BrewersPadres8/11 - 9:40 PM EDT
- RaysAthletics8/11 - 9:40 PM EDT
- AstrosGiants8/11 - 9:45 PM EDT
- RoyalsDodgers8/11 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
